UPDATES ON PRECIOUS METALS and CRUDE OIL (7:00 pm EDST)
We are now out of last week's strong reversal zone, We are entering a much milder, weaker reversal zone this week and next (Oct. 19 - 26) which may or may not correlate with a reversal in some markets.
Gold and silver prices both made new monthly highs last Monday in the center of last week's strong reversal zone, so it looks like that was a significant top. Prices have come down from there, but not by much, and both metals have been relatively flat since last Wednesday. The cycle labeling here is still ambiguous until these metals make a definitive move up or down. Ideally, I would like to see prices move lower this week or next for a final bottom in an older cycle. A case of bullish divergence where one metal makes a new monthly low without the other would also be a good sign of a bottom. But if gold breaks above $1932, we may have to give up on that scenario and give these cycles a younger labeling. We will stay on the sidelines of this market for now.
It looks like crude oil started a new medium-term cycle on either Sept. 8 and/or Oct. 2 (double bottom). Either way, a sub-cycle rally should be topping out soon to be followed by a corrective dip. As long as that dip stays above those double bottom lows (around $36.50 - Nov. contract chart), we might look to buy that correction.This market would look more bullish if it could break above its high of $41.72 from Sep. 18 before taking that correction. Let's stay on the sidelines of crude oil for now.
We are now out of last week's strong reversal zone, We are entering a much milder, weaker reversal zone this week and next (Oct. 19 - 26) which may or may not correlate with a reversal in some markets.
Gold and silver prices both made new monthly highs last Monday in the center of last week's strong reversal zone, so it looks like that was a significant top. Prices have come down from there, but not by much, and both metals have been relatively flat since last Wednesday. The cycle labeling here is still ambiguous until these metals make a definitive move up or down. Ideally, I would like to see prices move lower this week or next for a final bottom in an older cycle. A case of bullish divergence where one metal makes a new monthly low without the other would also be a good sign of a bottom. But if gold breaks above $1932, we may have to give up on that scenario and give these cycles a younger labeling. We will stay on the sidelines of this market for now.
It looks like crude oil started a new medium-term cycle on either Sept. 8 and/or Oct. 2 (double bottom). Either way, a sub-cycle rally should be topping out soon to be followed by a corrective dip. As long as that dip stays above those double bottom lows (around $36.50 - Nov. contract chart), we might look to buy that correction.This market would look more bullish if it could break above its high of $41.72 from Sep. 18 before taking that correction. Let's stay on the sidelines of crude oil for now.
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