The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog        Monday (evening),  November 30,  2015

11/30/2015

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (9:00 pm EST)

December is going to be an interesting month for the markets as they await two significant announcements - one from the European Central Bank (ECB) and one from the U.S. Federal Reserve - regarding monetary policy going forward for Europe and the United States. This Thursday it is expected that the ECB will announce an extension and expansion of its QE (quantitative easing) program to stimulate failing European economies. On Dec.15-16, the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its final meeting for this year, and most analysts are expecting the Fed to announce its first interest rate hike in nine years. Of course, these two banks don't have to do what is expected of them which is why financial markets could see some wild fluctuations in this last month of the year. It is interesting to note that Europe is loosening its monetary policy with more QE and lower interest rates while the U.S. is tightening its policy with no more QE (at least for now) and raising interest rates (or at least saying it will).  Another thing to watch for in December is the "Santa Claus effect". Investors often become relaxed and optimistic during the Christmas holiday season, and Wall Street frequently manifests a strong "Santa Claus rally" in equities into the New Year.  

Today was the last day of our current reversal period for the broad stock market and the market was down.  It is possible the markets are turning down now. The DOW and S&P 500 made new highs on Nov. 20 (the center of the reversal zone) and have not risen above them (yet), but we need to see more short-term bear signals that the market is turning down before we consider a short trade position. If the market rallies this week and the DOW and S&P 500 can exceed their Nov. 20 highs, we will likely wait for mid-December to sell the market short as that is our next reversal zone, and a top then would likely be the final top from which a significant correction to the current cycle bottom would take place. I am going to remain on the sidelines for the next few days to see if the market moves higher.  On the sidelines of the broad stock market for now.

Today was also the last day of our reversal zone for gold and silver. Silver made a new monthly low on Nov. 23 at $13.92 and gold made a new monthly low last Friday at $1053. These were within the reversal zone so they could be the bottoms of a new cycle in both metals. This is why we went long in gold and silver last week. Several short-term signals are still bearish, however, so the danger of prices moving lower is still present. ​We want to now maintain a tight stop loss at those lows ($1053 in gold and $13.92 in silver - these are spot prices). If prices move below those lows, we could see new cycle bottoms for both metals in mid-December. Fortunately, prices are rallying today, but it is still possible for them to turn back down, maybe even later this week when the ECB announces more QE for Europe (or not).  More QE for Europe could weaken the euro and strengthen the U.S. dollar, and more dollar rallying would likely push gold and silver prices down. We will watch this carefully during the week. I may decide to sell my long positions in gold and silver before the ECB announcement. Holding long positions in both gold and silver for now.

Crude oil prices moved a bit lower today, but they are still above the Nov.23 low of $40.41 which was in the center of a reversal zone that ends today. This means that Nov. 23 was a significant low, and prices could rally a little more (perhaps into mid-December) before falling again into a final cycle bottom that is due any time within the next two months. If prices continue to fall, however, we could see an early cycle bottom in mid-December instead of a high to sell short. In other words, the cycle pattern is not clear at the moment. If the broad stock market starts to rally into December, crude may follow suit so we may use equity charts to help us gauge the direction of crude oil over the next few weeks. Still on the sidelines of crude oil.

​




Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.