The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog        Monday,  November 19,  2018

11/19/2018

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (6:30 pm EST)

The broad stock market gave us a little scare today with the DOW's nearly 400 point drop (especially as we entered a long position last Thursday); however, last week's low (24,787) has not been broken, and today's close was above the support line of 25,000. Nevertheless, we are on alert for the possibility of this market turning bearish and breaking below the Oct. 29 lows that may have started new cycles in all three market indices (DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ). Let's lower the stop loss on our long positions to a close below 24,750 in the DOW and keep it at 2,650 for the S&P 500. One bullish factor now is the fact that this is a major holiday week in the U.S. (Thanksgiving on Thursday) and equity markets are often bullish into long holiday week-ends. Trading volume should also taper off significantly by Wednesday. We should also keep in mind that even if we take out last week's lows, we are still in a major reversal zone through Wednesday, and as long as we stay above the Oct. 29 lows we could still reverse strongly back up and stay bullish. In fact, if the NASDAQ does break its Oct. 29 low of 6,922 (it is close) while the DOW and S&P 500 stay above their Oct. 29 lows (24,122 and 2,603, respectively), we will have a strong bullish divergence signal and a strong incentive to stay long in this market. Unfortunately, all financial markets could be very volatile over the next three to four weeks so we could see a lot of price fluctuations and testing of support and resistance lines. We will need to watch these markets carefully and be nimble in our trading. Holding my long position in the broad stock market for now.

We also need to keep a close eye on the precious metals now. Gold and silver rallied a bit today, but not very strongly. Gold may have started a new medium-term cycle with last week's low at $1197, but it needs to rally strongly  above $1246 to confirm that. Otherwise, the current rally may end soon with prices turning down and dropping below last week's low. Silver needs to rally above $14.91 soon to stay bullish or else it too could turn back down and make a new low below the $13.95 low that started its medium-term cycle on Sept. 11.  We are currently long in gold but out of silver.  Let's keep our stop loss for this gold trade on a close below $1181.

We are now entering (today) a reversal zone for crude oil that will last through Nov. 28. Crude made a new low today at $55.08 (Dec. contract chart), and a medium-term and longer-term cycle bottom are due (overdue). Today's low  could be it or it could go lower over the next five trading days. A drop closer to $53 would be an ideal target to buy so we will watch for that this week or next. Still on the sidelines of crude oil.





Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.