MARKETS UPDATE (11:33 pm EST)
We are about to begin the month of April. Based on cycle and timing factors, this month has the potential to be very volatile for all markets, especially the broad stock market, as there are several timing zones with a high probability for significant market reversals. We are not in an easy trading environment at the moment and, unfortunately, this may continue for at least several more months (possibly through the end of the year). I realize that I am "on the sidelines" quite frequently now, but the dangers in the markets now warrants this. To quote Mark Twain: "I'm more interested in the return of my money than the return on my money". That said, the potential for significant market moves (up and down) during this volatile period will likely present short-term opportunities for profitable trades which I will try to identify and take advantage of (cautiously).
The broad stock market is still giving mixed directional momentum signals, but cycles are suggesting the possibility of a significant correction down within the next two or three weeks. New Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen talked up the stock market today in a speech lamenting the poor health of the economy and labor market and suggested that Fed intervention would continue to be required "for some time". The dovish tone of this speech kicked the DOW up 134 points today, but the effect may not last long as Wednesday is the mid-point of a strong reversal zone. A rise of the DOW into mid-week without exceeding the all-time high of 16,588 may set up a good shorting opportunity (short-term). Still on the sidelines.
Gold and silver prices may be finding at least temporary support at $1280 (gold) and $19.50 (silver), but directional momentum is still mixed (bullish and bearish) in this market and it is really not safe to take a long position in either metal just yet. If prices stay low into the end of this week, a rally may follow, but if gold and silver rise into Thursday/Friday the market may be setting up for another downturn towards lower prices. I may consider a short-term trade by the end of the week based on which scenario unfolds. On the sidelines for now.
We are about to begin the month of April. Based on cycle and timing factors, this month has the potential to be very volatile for all markets, especially the broad stock market, as there are several timing zones with a high probability for significant market reversals. We are not in an easy trading environment at the moment and, unfortunately, this may continue for at least several more months (possibly through the end of the year). I realize that I am "on the sidelines" quite frequently now, but the dangers in the markets now warrants this. To quote Mark Twain: "I'm more interested in the return of my money than the return on my money". That said, the potential for significant market moves (up and down) during this volatile period will likely present short-term opportunities for profitable trades which I will try to identify and take advantage of (cautiously).
The broad stock market is still giving mixed directional momentum signals, but cycles are suggesting the possibility of a significant correction down within the next two or three weeks. New Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen talked up the stock market today in a speech lamenting the poor health of the economy and labor market and suggested that Fed intervention would continue to be required "for some time". The dovish tone of this speech kicked the DOW up 134 points today, but the effect may not last long as Wednesday is the mid-point of a strong reversal zone. A rise of the DOW into mid-week without exceeding the all-time high of 16,588 may set up a good shorting opportunity (short-term). Still on the sidelines.
Gold and silver prices may be finding at least temporary support at $1280 (gold) and $19.50 (silver), but directional momentum is still mixed (bullish and bearish) in this market and it is really not safe to take a long position in either metal just yet. If prices stay low into the end of this week, a rally may follow, but if gold and silver rise into Thursday/Friday the market may be setting up for another downturn towards lower prices. I may consider a short-term trade by the end of the week based on which scenario unfolds. On the sidelines for now.
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