COMMENT ON TODAY'S TRADES IN SILVER AND CRUDE OIL (11:30 pm EDt)
Silver prices edged up today to $15.91 and then backed off a bit. I decided to enter a short position in silver near the end of the day (see trade alert below) as there is resistance at $16, we are near the middle of a reversal zone, there is intermarket bearish divergence with gold (which we shorted on Sunday), gold seems to be breaking down, a cycle low is due, and COT charts for these metals are very bearish. Depending on risk aversion, traders can set a stop loss for this trade on a close above $16 or on a break above last Friday's high of $16.145 (especially if gold breaks above $1282). We will try and hold these short precious metal positions through the week as long as gold can stay under its March 11 high of $1282. Holding short positions now in both gold and silver.
Crude oil prices also rose a bit today and touched $40.30 before falling back and closing at $39.91 (April contract). We are already past the center of a reversal zone for crude so I decided to enter a short position in late afternoon trading. There is a good chance that last week's high at $41.20 was the subcycle top, but if prices push higher, that top should be in no later than Friday and should not close above the 200 day moving average (now at $42.73 and falling). There is also resistance at the $40 mark which could contain any rally. A good stop loss point here would be a close above last week's high ($41.20) or a weekly close above the 200 day moving average depending on one's risk tolerance. Now holding a short position in crude oil.
Silver prices edged up today to $15.91 and then backed off a bit. I decided to enter a short position in silver near the end of the day (see trade alert below) as there is resistance at $16, we are near the middle of a reversal zone, there is intermarket bearish divergence with gold (which we shorted on Sunday), gold seems to be breaking down, a cycle low is due, and COT charts for these metals are very bearish. Depending on risk aversion, traders can set a stop loss for this trade on a close above $16 or on a break above last Friday's high of $16.145 (especially if gold breaks above $1282). We will try and hold these short precious metal positions through the week as long as gold can stay under its March 11 high of $1282. Holding short positions now in both gold and silver.
Crude oil prices also rose a bit today and touched $40.30 before falling back and closing at $39.91 (April contract). We are already past the center of a reversal zone for crude so I decided to enter a short position in late afternoon trading. There is a good chance that last week's high at $41.20 was the subcycle top, but if prices push higher, that top should be in no later than Friday and should not close above the 200 day moving average (now at $42.73 and falling). There is also resistance at the $40 mark which could contain any rally. A good stop loss point here would be a close above last week's high ($41.20) or a weekly close above the 200 day moving average depending on one's risk tolerance. Now holding a short position in crude oil.
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