MARKETS UPDATE (3:15 pm EST)
The U.S. stock market is up strongly today as investors seem relieved by mild Western reaction (Visa bans, asset freezes) to Sunday's vote by Crimea to secede from Ukraine. The market is also being buoyed by better than expected manufacturing data. It's a little too early to tell if the DOW has found a bottom yet. An ideal bottom here would be in the 15,700 - 15,900 range and last Friday's low was only to 16,047. There is now some resistance in the 16,300 area, so I want to at least see if the market can break that level before considering a long position. If that resistance does hold, we could see the DOW move back down towards that ideal bottom. Directional momentum may be getting a little more bearish as a strong bearish signal appeared late last week in some NASDAQ contract charts. Currently the DOW and NASDAQ are mixed bullish and bearish, but the S&P 500 remains 100% bullish. Another bearish factor in the broad stock market now is the fact that the DOW has not yet made a new all-time high (above 16,588) while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have made new highs (intermarket bearish divergence). This factor will be negated once the DOW clears that hurdle at 16,588. This market is very ambiguous at the moment and could break up or down. I am still watching it from the sidelines.
The price of crude oil appears to be stabilizing just above $97. According to cycle studies we are almost at an ideal point to go long in this market for at least a short-term rally, but last week's strong bearish momentum signal now makes the chart for crude mixed bullish and bearish. There are also some political rumors circulating that oil prices may be pushed down now to punish Russia economically for its intervention in Ukraine. The target range for crude's current price correction could go as low as $94, so it is possible we could see that level soon. There is currently support, however, down to $96. Even If that holds and we get a rally now, bearish factors may temper it. I am staying out of this market for now and waiting for the medium-term directional trend to become a little more clear.
Directional momentum in the precious metals remains somewhat mixed. Silver charts are still mixed bullish and bearish while gold charts remain mostly bullish. Some short-term bearish trade signals, however, are appearing in some gold charts today as the spot price dropped to $1369 after topping out at $1392 on Sunday. We may be seeing a brief correction here that could present us with a good opportunity to buy. Technical studies suggest a possible correction into the end of the week, so I am on the alert to buy anytime now. I would like to note here that I think
the recent bearish signals in the silver charts are temporary and will soon be negated as both gold and silver begin a strong new rally. On the sidelines and waiting to go long.
The U.S. stock market is up strongly today as investors seem relieved by mild Western reaction (Visa bans, asset freezes) to Sunday's vote by Crimea to secede from Ukraine. The market is also being buoyed by better than expected manufacturing data. It's a little too early to tell if the DOW has found a bottom yet. An ideal bottom here would be in the 15,700 - 15,900 range and last Friday's low was only to 16,047. There is now some resistance in the 16,300 area, so I want to at least see if the market can break that level before considering a long position. If that resistance does hold, we could see the DOW move back down towards that ideal bottom. Directional momentum may be getting a little more bearish as a strong bearish signal appeared late last week in some NASDAQ contract charts. Currently the DOW and NASDAQ are mixed bullish and bearish, but the S&P 500 remains 100% bullish. Another bearish factor in the broad stock market now is the fact that the DOW has not yet made a new all-time high (above 16,588) while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have made new highs (intermarket bearish divergence). This factor will be negated once the DOW clears that hurdle at 16,588. This market is very ambiguous at the moment and could break up or down. I am still watching it from the sidelines.
The price of crude oil appears to be stabilizing just above $97. According to cycle studies we are almost at an ideal point to go long in this market for at least a short-term rally, but last week's strong bearish momentum signal now makes the chart for crude mixed bullish and bearish. There are also some political rumors circulating that oil prices may be pushed down now to punish Russia economically for its intervention in Ukraine. The target range for crude's current price correction could go as low as $94, so it is possible we could see that level soon. There is currently support, however, down to $96. Even If that holds and we get a rally now, bearish factors may temper it. I am staying out of this market for now and waiting for the medium-term directional trend to become a little more clear.
Directional momentum in the precious metals remains somewhat mixed. Silver charts are still mixed bullish and bearish while gold charts remain mostly bullish. Some short-term bearish trade signals, however, are appearing in some gold charts today as the spot price dropped to $1369 after topping out at $1392 on Sunday. We may be seeing a brief correction here that could present us with a good opportunity to buy. Technical studies suggest a possible correction into the end of the week, so I am on the alert to buy anytime now. I would like to note here that I think
the recent bearish signals in the silver charts are temporary and will soon be negated as both gold and silver begin a strong new rally. On the sidelines and waiting to go long.
RSS Feed