CRUDE OIL UPDATE (11:00 pm EST)
As I stated on Friday, crude oil's medium-term cycle could have peaked last week on Tuesday at $72.90 (July contract chart). If that was the final peak, then prices would likely fall for 2-5 weeks from that top to make a final cycle bottom sometime in June. But we note that prices are now falling steeply into the center of the current reversal zone for crude (which ends this Friday). There is strong support in the $66 area (where prices are now), and if crude's trend is to remain bullish, we might see just a sub-cycle bottom here and more rallying to exceed last week's top. There is another support line around $63 - $64 and below that at $58 - $59. If prices break below $63, that would be a bearish signal, and we would probably wait for the final bottom to buy in June. A sharp rally from here, however, could set up another shorting opportunity. We will have to wait and see how prices move this week. Still on the sidelines of crude.
As I stated on Friday, crude oil's medium-term cycle could have peaked last week on Tuesday at $72.90 (July contract chart). If that was the final peak, then prices would likely fall for 2-5 weeks from that top to make a final cycle bottom sometime in June. But we note that prices are now falling steeply into the center of the current reversal zone for crude (which ends this Friday). There is strong support in the $66 area (where prices are now), and if crude's trend is to remain bullish, we might see just a sub-cycle bottom here and more rallying to exceed last week's top. There is another support line around $63 - $64 and below that at $58 - $59. If prices break below $63, that would be a bearish signal, and we would probably wait for the final bottom to buy in June. A sharp rally from here, however, could set up another shorting opportunity. We will have to wait and see how prices move this week. Still on the sidelines of crude.
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