The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog          Monday,  July 14,  2014

7/14/2014

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (6:15 pm EST)

Anyone who has been reading this blog for the last few weeks will know that even though I am long-term bullish on gold and silver I have been cautious about going long recently as several technical, cycle, and timing factors have been pointing to the possibility of an imminent sharp correction in prices.  Today we are seeing that correction as gold prices dropped over 2% and silver lost nearly 2.5%.  It appears that gold price manipulators may have engineered the recent gold rally into what had appeared to be a breakout in terms of several technical indicators. This may have been to get many buyers in just before selling gold short and reaping a big profit from the "fake out". Fortunately, we were not deceived by this as there were other technical signals that made me suspicious of the rally. It looks like the ideal situation of a significant low in precious metals into the second half of July may be setting up here so we are now on the lookout for signs of a bottom to buy.  There is strong support for gold in the $1280 - $1300 area which may hold this correction.  If prices move lower we could see a new bottom for the long-term cycle, but timing now is more important than price and I will be looking to buy at some point over the next few weeks.  Still on the sidelines and waiting to buy.

The broad stock market continues to look bullish (directional momentum in the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ is still nearly 100% for all three indices) and the DOW gained 111 points today.  Rallying could continue into the end of this week, but we are entering a time period (from now into the first half of August) when a major reversal in this market is likely.  It is late in the chart cycles of the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ so a significant correction in these markets is due soon.  New highs into the end of this week could create an ideal spot to sell short so we will look for that.  A less likely (but possible) scenario would be for the market to pull back a bit into Friday and then rally again for new highs into late July/early August.  In either case we are looking to sell short soon what could be a significant correction of perhaps 
8 -15%.  On the sidelines for now. 

Crude oil prices seem to be finding support just above $100.  Ideally, a significant reversal in this market would be towards the end of this week.  This and the fact that directional momentum in crude charts is now mixed bullish and bearish makes me hesitant to go long at the moment, even though we are at my price target for a bottom.  If prices rise strongly into Friday we could be setting up for another major move down and the market could turn bearish.  I am going to wait and observe a few more days of price movement before making a trade here.  Still on the sidelines.







Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.