The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog            Monday,  July 10,  2017

7/10/2017

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (7:30 pm EDT)

The next major reversal zone for the broad stock market begins next week (July 18 - 26), and this sluggish market is still not showing much enthusiasm for either rising or falling into it. For the DOW and S&P 500, their June 29 lows in the last reversal zone were pivot points for a three day rally, but that rally may have topped out on July 3 (also in the reversal zone), and these indices could still fall lower into next week. On the other hand, if these indices can break above those July 3 highs this week (that would be 21,563 in the DOW and 2,439 in the S&P 500) then we could see more rallying into next week. As I have discussed in recent blogs, we are keeping our eyes open for a significant top to sell short as a significant correction (possibly 8-10% or more) is expected soon based on technical and cycle patterns in these charts. Still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

Gold and silver have now broken below the lows that started their current medium-term cycles (that was $1214 on May 9 for gold and $16.07 on May 9 for silver) which means that their cycles are likely pointed down for at least several more weeks and possibly longer. It is possible for gold prices to get as low as the $1150 area so we will watch for any short-term rallies now to possibly sell short. In the same way gold prices may have been manipulated two weeks go by someone placing a large sell order "by mistake", it appears that a similar situation occurred around 7pm EDT last Thursday after normal market hours when another large sell order was put in for silver that quickly caused the price to briefly plummet from $16 to $14.34. It recovered quickly, but that low around $14 could end up being a significant point in silver's cycle analysis (although it is not showing up on most spot price charts). We will also now watch for any brief bounces in silver's price to possibly sell short for a final cycle bottom that could be as soon as three weeks from now but may also come later in the summer or early fall. Silver's final bottom price will not likely get below that $14 area. On the sidelines of gold and silver for now.

Considering gold and silver's sudden bearish turn, it is not surprising to see the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index looking somewhat bullish. It looks like a baseline of support for the dollar may be developing around 96 from which a rally could start. It may be a difficult climb, however, as there is significant resistance for the dollar all the way up to 100. Nevertheless, even a moderate rally would help push the precious metal prices lower.

Crude oil prices edged lower today so we are still on track to buy a final cycle bottom somewhere within crude's next reversal zone (July 18 - 29). Prices could get to the $40 area, but could also stay above $42. We will wait and see how low they go next week. If prices start to rally and rise into next week's reversal zone, we will consider selling short the top of that rally. Otherwise, we will wait for that bottom to buy. On the sidelines of crude.



​

Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.