I am re-posting my comments on crude oil from last Tuesday here because all of it still applies:
"The medium-term cycle labeling for crude oil is still not clear, but there are two likely possibilities at this point in time:
1) Crude started a new medium-term cycle with its low of Sept. 28 at $73.28 (March contract chart). This scenario is bearish because prices have already fallen well below the start of the cycle (crude fell to $70.56 on Dec. 9), and the rally from Dec. 9 should turn back down soon with prices falling below $70.56 to the final cycle bottom due anytime now by March 4.
2) Crude started a new medium-term cycle on Dec. 9 at $70.56. This scenario could be bullish or bearish, depending on whether or not prices can stay above $70.56. Prices seem to have overcome resistance at $80 and are holding above there. The next steps in a bullish cycle would be to clear $85, and then $90. If bearish, however, prices will not clear these hurdles before turning down again and breaking below $70.
We are now also looking for the end of a longer-term 3-year cycle in crude which is due anytime now, but ideally around March 7 (or maybe near Feb. 4). If we get new lows then, it may be a very good spot to buy."
Well, crude prices managed to hold above $80 (March contract chart) for most of last week, but today they are falling steeply. If this is an older medium-term cycle (scenario 1 above), prices will continue down to a final cycle bottom due anytime by March 4 and probably below $70. If this is a younger cycle (scenario 2 above), however, prices may find support at or a little below the 45-day moving average (crude is testing that today) and then resume its rally from its first sub-cycle low. Right now, it looks like it could go either way, so we will remain on the sidelines until the cycle labeling becomes more clear.