MARKETS UPDATE (9:30 pm EST)
This week we have no major reversal zones for any market, so we don't expect any major changes in trend. Today the broad stock market opened with a strong rally, but that rally lost most of its momentum by the end of the day. The lows in the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ from last Friday were inside a weak "pivot point" zone (that may extend into tomorrow), so it's possible they were a significant bottom. But if the market starts breaking below those lows after Tuesday, the trend may continue down until our next strong major reversal zone for equities coming up March 13 - 23. As I mentioned in my last blog, it would be ideal to see the DOW and S&P 500 make their final medium-term cycle bottoms in that time frame within our target ranges (that would be 30,500 - 32,500 in the DOW and 3,600 - 3,900 in the S&P 500). Let's continue to hold our short positions in this market for now as we wait for that bottom.
Both gold and silver made new weekly lows today which eliminates any bullish divergence signals for this week. Gold still hasn't closed within our target range for a final medium-term cycle bottom (due anytime now) which is $1770 - $1810. Silver IS within our target range ($20 - $22) for a final medium-term cycle bottom (now overdue), but still has room to move lower (it closed today at $20.63). Next week we have a very strong potential "pivot point" for silver from Monday - Wednesday, and a strong one for gold from Wednesday through Friday. We also have a strong reversal zone for both metals the following week (March 13 - 21). Any of these time frames would be a good place for gold and silver to make their final medium-term cycle bottoms. This encourages me to think that both metal prices will continue to trend down this week. We will stay on the sidelines for now until we see stronger signs of a cycle bottom forming.
Crude oil prices edged a bit higher today but still remain in "congestion" between $74 and $80. The strong reversal zone coming up March 13 - 23 could end up being the bottom of an older medium-term cycle in crude, or it could be a new high in a younger cycle - it is too early to tell which it will be. Perhaps a trend (up or down) will establish itself by the end of this week. Until the cycle and trend pattern become more clear, we will stay on the sidelines of this market.
This week we have no major reversal zones for any market, so we don't expect any major changes in trend. Today the broad stock market opened with a strong rally, but that rally lost most of its momentum by the end of the day. The lows in the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ from last Friday were inside a weak "pivot point" zone (that may extend into tomorrow), so it's possible they were a significant bottom. But if the market starts breaking below those lows after Tuesday, the trend may continue down until our next strong major reversal zone for equities coming up March 13 - 23. As I mentioned in my last blog, it would be ideal to see the DOW and S&P 500 make their final medium-term cycle bottoms in that time frame within our target ranges (that would be 30,500 - 32,500 in the DOW and 3,600 - 3,900 in the S&P 500). Let's continue to hold our short positions in this market for now as we wait for that bottom.
Both gold and silver made new weekly lows today which eliminates any bullish divergence signals for this week. Gold still hasn't closed within our target range for a final medium-term cycle bottom (due anytime now) which is $1770 - $1810. Silver IS within our target range ($20 - $22) for a final medium-term cycle bottom (now overdue), but still has room to move lower (it closed today at $20.63). Next week we have a very strong potential "pivot point" for silver from Monday - Wednesday, and a strong one for gold from Wednesday through Friday. We also have a strong reversal zone for both metals the following week (March 13 - 21). Any of these time frames would be a good place for gold and silver to make their final medium-term cycle bottoms. This encourages me to think that both metal prices will continue to trend down this week. We will stay on the sidelines for now until we see stronger signs of a cycle bottom forming.
Crude oil prices edged a bit higher today but still remain in "congestion" between $74 and $80. The strong reversal zone coming up March 13 - 23 could end up being the bottom of an older medium-term cycle in crude, or it could be a new high in a younger cycle - it is too early to tell which it will be. Perhaps a trend (up or down) will establish itself by the end of this week. Until the cycle and trend pattern become more clear, we will stay on the sidelines of this market.
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