I have been without my regular home internet connection since Saturday, and this apparently will not be restored until late Tuesday night so I am going to post a brief update here. (Yes, I do have mobile access, but most of my research and analysis tools are based in my home computer).
In terms of cycles, technical analysis and timing factors it is looking like the last two weeks of December and the first week of January could coincide with major turning points and direction reversals in all markets. The broad stock market appears to be especially vulnerable to a major reversal in this time frame. This could put a damper on any "Santa Claus" rally now. Even though momentum is still bullish in this market, I feel that the possible short-term gains of any rally into this time period are not worth the risk of being caught in a downturn. I am therefore going to wait for a deeper correction before assuming long positions in the broad stock market. (If the market starts moving lower this week and next, it is possible for the end of this month to coincide with a corrective bottom, which would be a good entry point to go long. Otherwise, we will likely see a crest into this holiday period followed by a correction into January.) It is looking like the Federal Reserve may attempt to start QE tapering before the year is over (or at least they may give a definitive date for it to begin early next year). Any serious talk of tapering now could be the trigger for a stock market correction. Still out of this market.
Momentum in gold and silver continues to be strongly bearish. We may see short-term fluctuations in metal prices (up and down) as we move into the holidays. Any rallies now into the last week of December that hold upper resistance will likely reverse to send prices down to the final cycle bottoms we have been anticipating. As with the broad stock market, if prices fall into the end of the year, those cycle bottoms may come early and we will look to buy then. Still holding short positions in gold and silver.