The broad stock market continues its roller coaster ride today with a sharp rally (270 points in the DOW) off the deep low from Friday's equity plunge (low of 25,507 in the DOW and 2,834 in the S&P 500). Not surprisingly, today's rally was kicked off by another announcement from President Trump concerning "trade deals" with China. Unlike Mr. Trump's angry rhetoric towards China on Friday, today the President said that China wants to return to the negotiating table. Will a trade deal move forward now? It's very hard to say so we will look to our cycle analysis to help us with our trading decisions.
The DOW made a significant half-cycle corrective low on Aug. 15 at 25,339 and the S&P 500 did the same thing with its low of 2,822 on August 5. These are important lows. If they break it means the broad stock market is turning bearish and will be headed lower for many more weeks. On the other hand, if these lows hold, they could act as support for a strong rally now, possibly to new all-time highs. We are in the dead center of our reversal zone (Aug. 21 - 29) so last Friday's lows could be the turning point for such a rally, but last Thursday's highs were also in this reversal zone so that top could also be a turning point. Let's wait and see how this moves over the next few days. If the DOW can break and close above resistance around 26,430, that would be a bullish sign and we would remain on the sidelines to wait for a new high. A break below that low at 25,339, however, might inspire us to sell short for a ride down to the final cycle bottom. Let's stay on the sidelines for now.
Gold prices made a new high yesterday (Sunday) and silver made new highs today, and both are closing down today. We are still waiting for a sharp correction in both metals. We are in the center of a reversal zone now so this could be the start of it. Gold's correction could find support around $1490, but if that breaks it might go as low as $1400. As I've stated before, silver could go down to the $1600 area. We will look to buy at any of these corrective lows. Still on the sidelines of the precious metals.
Crude oils's cycle is very similar to that of the broad stock market right now. Crude made a half-cycle correction on Aug. 7 at $52.17 (Oct. contract chart) and is now retesting that low. If it breaks, crude prices could be down for many more weeks. Alternatively, a strong rally now that could break the Aug. 13 high of $56.84 would be bullish and could send prices up to challenge the mid-July high of $60.76. Again, it looks like crude is taking its cues from equity markets. Both markets could go either way now, but technical and cycle analysis is leaning a bit more towards a bearish view. We will remain on the sidelines of crude for now.