We are still waiting for the broad stock market to make a decisive move up or down. The DOW and S&P 500 were relatively flat last week and kept a reasonable distance above their 15-day and 45-day moving averages while the NASDAQ dipped down a bit and tested its 15-day moving average. (Today, that average is being tested again and seems to to be holding). Tomorrow we enter a new general reversal zone for all markets (April 11 - 20), but it's too early to tell if we will see a significant high or low (or both) in this time frame. My bias right now is that our new medium-term cycles in the these indices that started in mid-March will be at least short-term bullish and challenge or exceed their previous highs from Feb. 2 (S&P 500 and NASDAQ), and Dec. 13. 2022 (DOW). Let's continue to hold our long position in this market for now.
Both gold and silver prices are edging down today with gold testing its 15-day moving average. Gold is now back below $2000, but it has to fall a lot lower to confirm that the current medium-term cycle is turning bearish. There is a very strong potential "pivot point" for silver today and tomorrow, so we could see a sharp correction down from the resistance silver is now encountering around $25. We will hold our short position in gold for now and stay on the sidelines of silver until we see how serious any corrective drop will be.
Crude oil prices continue to stabilize just above $80 (May contract chart). As I mentioned in my last blog, prices need to start closing above $83.04 to confirm that the this new medium-term cycle that started on March 20 is bullish. We note that OPEC's surprise announcement of a production cut last week created a "gap up" in prices on April 3. Any "gap down" in price now could create a "bearish island reversal" chart pattern which could send prices back down very quickly. We will keep that in mind as we wait for a definitive price move in this market and remain on the sidelines for now.