BRIEF UPDATE ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (2:00 pm EST)
The broad stock market is giving us a good scare this week with its wild gyrations, but things might settle down a bit by the end of next week as we are moving out of a high volatility period that has been in place over the last three weeks. Yesterday the DOW broke below a strong support level around 25,000 and is now testing another support area around 24,300 - 24,500. We note that (at the time of this writing - 2:00 pm EST) the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ have not broken below their Oct. 29 lows (DOW, S&P 500) or Nov. 20 low (NASDAQ), but they are getting close. These indices are going below what would be a normal sub-cycle correction (assuming they all started new bullish medium-term cycles on the dates mentioned above) which is putting in jeopardy our idea of a bullish rally from here. We are fortunately still on the sidelines of this market and will stay there for now as we wait and see if the new support area holds. If the NASDAQ and/or the S&P 500 break their lows (6,830 and 2,603, respectively) while the DOW stays above its low (24,122) then there's still a chance for a bullish "Santa Claus" rally into the end of the year. If all three indices break their lows then this market could be in trouble.
The broad stock market is giving us a good scare this week with its wild gyrations, but things might settle down a bit by the end of next week as we are moving out of a high volatility period that has been in place over the last three weeks. Yesterday the DOW broke below a strong support level around 25,000 and is now testing another support area around 24,300 - 24,500. We note that (at the time of this writing - 2:00 pm EST) the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ have not broken below their Oct. 29 lows (DOW, S&P 500) or Nov. 20 low (NASDAQ), but they are getting close. These indices are going below what would be a normal sub-cycle correction (assuming they all started new bullish medium-term cycles on the dates mentioned above) which is putting in jeopardy our idea of a bullish rally from here. We are fortunately still on the sidelines of this market and will stay there for now as we wait and see if the new support area holds. If the NASDAQ and/or the S&P 500 break their lows (6,830 and 2,603, respectively) while the DOW stays above its low (24,122) then there's still a chance for a bullish "Santa Claus" rally into the end of the year. If all three indices break their lows then this market could be in trouble.
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