Gold most likely started a new medium-term cycle with its $1693 low on Aug, 9. It then rallied to a sub-cycle top at $1833 on Sept. 3. The first sub-cycle low happened on Sept. 29 at $1722, and a new sub-cycle started as prices rallied from there and touched $1800 last Thursday at the center of our reversal zone specifically for gold/silver. Thursday's high may have been a significant top because prices have fallen steeply from there.
OK. We're still not sure if this cycle's trend is bullish or bearish. If Thursday's $1800 high was a major sub-cycle top, the cycle is turning bearish because that is much lower than the $1833 high from Sept. 3. A bearish cycle could be down for many more weeks. On the other hand, this new sub-cycle could still push higher and turn the cycle bullish, maybe even into November/December. The key thing to watch now is how low prices go in the current dip that started last Friday. That dip could be over now if prices start to rally from here. But if they fall lower, we would like to see them stay above $1722, and certainly not go below $1700. A fall below $1700 would confirm a bearish cycle. A break above $1800, and especially above $1833 would suggest the cycle is bullish with higher prices ahead. The trend is too uncertain for trading, so we will remain on the sidelines of gold for now.
Silver may have started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $21.44 on Sept. 29. That would be very bullish, and indeed, prices have been rallying strongly from there (so far). Prices made a new weekly high today and touched $24 before backing down significantly. Today is the last day of our reversal zone for gold/silver, so that may be a significant top. If so, prices will correct down from here. If prices fall below $21.44, we will have to consider that silver's medium-term cycle did not start on Sept. 29 but instead started with the double-bottom lows of $23.02 and $22.92 on Aug. 9 and Aug. 20, respectively. That would mean silver is an older and bearish cycle moving to its final bottom not due for at least several more weeks. A break above $24.82 would confirm the idea of a new (bullish) cycle. Breaking below $21.44 is bearish. As with gold, we will stay on the sidelines of silver for now.
Crude oil started its current medium-term cycle on Aug. 23 with its low of $61.11 on that day. From there it has rallied sharply to yesterday's high of $83.18. That high was at the center of a reversal zone specifically for crude that ends this Friday (Oct 12 - 22). This market is overdue for a sub-cycle correction, so we could see a top this week (if it didn't already happen yesterday). We will watch for that correction for a possible opportunity to buy as this market looks very bullish. We could soon see prices near $90 (and possibly even higher in 2022). Still on the sidelines of crude oil.