It is very late in the medium-term cycle of gold. This means the cycle's final bottom could come anytime between now and the end of December. Gold's price has been falling steeply from its recent high of $1875 on Nov. 16. That final cycle bottom could be forming now OR we could get another rally in this old cycle before the final fall. Either way, prices have broken below several support zones this week, so this could put a damper on any rally - even if we start a new medium-term cycle. Gold would have to break above that $1875 high soon to start looking bullish again. That would be a steep rise from the current price around $1784, but it's not impossible because there are some technical signals suggesting a strong rally into December could happen from a low this week. We usually like to buy the bottom of an old cycle and start of a new one, but the current cycle labeling as well as the trend (bullish or bearish) is not clear at the moment, so we will remain on the sidelines for now.
Note that our long-term view of gold still includes the possibility of a "blow-off" top that could challenge or exceed the $2070 high from Aug. 2020. I think that right now through the end of December represents an opportunity for gold to do this.
Unlike gold, silver is early (young) in its current medium-term cycle which began with its low of $21.44 on Sept. 29. Young cycles tend to be bullish, and this one has been no exception (so far). Silver is taking a significant sub-cycle correction now that is testing the 45-day moving average. If this correction can stabilize and stay above $23, there is a possibility of a very strong rally from here into December. If we get a bullish divergence signal (gold OR silver making a new monthly or weekly low without the other) this week or next, we may consider buying silver and/or gold for a strong rally into December. We are on the sidelines for now.
Recent hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve seems to have given a lift to the U.S. Dollar Index, We have witnessed a steep rally in the greenback since early November. There are no major reversal zones for currencies until late December, so this rally is not facing any major obstacles right now. Nevertheless, strong rallies often take "breaks" to unwind momentum, and this one may be due for a small pullback soon. Such a pullback could trigger a rally in the precious metals as I have suggested above.