Just so we don't lose sight of the forest for the trees, I would like to clear up any possible confusion from yesterday's blog on the broad stock market about covering our short positions in the NASDAQ (or S&P 500 and DOW) once we discern the start of a new medium-term cycle in any of these indices. Yes, the start of a new medium-term cycle would be at least short-term bullish, and we would see some rallying. But we need to remember that medium-term cycles operate WITHIN longer-term cycles, so even if we start new medium-term cycles, a longer-term cycle correction in equities may not be over yet, and the medium-term cycles could easily and quickly turn back down to make deeper lows.
We note that currently the NASDAQ has dropped nearly 20% from its all-time high, the DOW about 10%, and the S&P 500 around 12%. These are big corrections, but if we are still completing a 90 year cycle in equities, these indices could go a lot lower. The behavior of stock markets in January is often a bellwether for how the markets will perform for the rest of the year. January's performance has been dismal. This doesn't bode well for the rest of 2022.