IMPORTANT UPDATE on PRECIOUS METALS (4:00 pm EDST)
As I've been stating in recent blogs (and in my recent Gold UPDATE on the Home Page), gold is nearing the end of a long-term 23-year cycle and may already be starting its final descent to the long-term cycle bottom that is due around 2023 - 2024. The crest of the 23-year cycle was probably the all-time high of $2070 in Aug. 2020, but that high was challenged earlier this month on March 8 with an isolated high at $2066. Prices have fallen sharply from that peak, which could easily be a "double-top" to the all-time high of 2020. "Double-top" formations are a bearish sign, so gold's 23-year cycle could now be in its downward phase and headed to its final cycle bottom over the next few years. Price-wise, that bottom could go back down to the $1000 level.
But what about that possible "blow-off" top in gold I have been mentioning in recent blogs? Well, that's still possible, but it is now looking less likely. We can say now that both gold and silver are probably near the end of their current medium-term cycles. Last week's low in both metals (which was in our current reversal zone for precious metals - March 16-24) was likely a late sub-cycle low. This means there should only be one more rally in these cycles before a fall to the final medium-term cycle bottoms - due anytime now over the next several weeks (preferably in a reversal zone). If there is to be a "blow-off" top, gold would have to rally strongly now and exceed the $2070 all-time high. That's possible, but not likely as prices have been falling steeply from the March 8 high, and there are several short-term bearish signals in place at the moment suggesting only a mild rally from here.
What we should watch for now is a modest rally in gold to the $2000 to $2100 area where, if prices stall, we should think about selling short. Similarly, a rally in silver to the $26 - $27 area might be a good spot for a short sell. If one metal exceeds its March 8 high without the other (bearish divergence), that would be an even stronger signal to short this market. We are still in the reversal zone for these metals through Thursday, so it's possible a significant top may form as early as this week. If not, a top could form in the first half of April.
The bottom line here is that we are now bearish on both gold and silver and will be looking for opportunities to sell these metals short as it appears the final long-term (23-year) cycle top in gold is probably in.
(Silver is also near the end of a long-term cycle that usually lasts about 18 years. This cycle started in Oct. 2008 with an $8.40 low in silver and most likely peaked early in April 2011 - near $50. It is not due to bottom until 2027 at the earliest - several years later than the expected bottom for gold's 23-year cycle. Nevertheless, if gold starts a major correction now, silver will follow and move significantly down with gold.)
Even if the Russia/Ukraine war and geopolitical instability push these metal prices to new highs, it is VERY late in gold's 23-year cycle, and the final top to this cycle is overdue and imminent - if it hasn't already happened.
As I've been stating in recent blogs (and in my recent Gold UPDATE on the Home Page), gold is nearing the end of a long-term 23-year cycle and may already be starting its final descent to the long-term cycle bottom that is due around 2023 - 2024. The crest of the 23-year cycle was probably the all-time high of $2070 in Aug. 2020, but that high was challenged earlier this month on March 8 with an isolated high at $2066. Prices have fallen sharply from that peak, which could easily be a "double-top" to the all-time high of 2020. "Double-top" formations are a bearish sign, so gold's 23-year cycle could now be in its downward phase and headed to its final cycle bottom over the next few years. Price-wise, that bottom could go back down to the $1000 level.
But what about that possible "blow-off" top in gold I have been mentioning in recent blogs? Well, that's still possible, but it is now looking less likely. We can say now that both gold and silver are probably near the end of their current medium-term cycles. Last week's low in both metals (which was in our current reversal zone for precious metals - March 16-24) was likely a late sub-cycle low. This means there should only be one more rally in these cycles before a fall to the final medium-term cycle bottoms - due anytime now over the next several weeks (preferably in a reversal zone). If there is to be a "blow-off" top, gold would have to rally strongly now and exceed the $2070 all-time high. That's possible, but not likely as prices have been falling steeply from the March 8 high, and there are several short-term bearish signals in place at the moment suggesting only a mild rally from here.
What we should watch for now is a modest rally in gold to the $2000 to $2100 area where, if prices stall, we should think about selling short. Similarly, a rally in silver to the $26 - $27 area might be a good spot for a short sell. If one metal exceeds its March 8 high without the other (bearish divergence), that would be an even stronger signal to short this market. We are still in the reversal zone for these metals through Thursday, so it's possible a significant top may form as early as this week. If not, a top could form in the first half of April.
The bottom line here is that we are now bearish on both gold and silver and will be looking for opportunities to sell these metals short as it appears the final long-term (23-year) cycle top in gold is probably in.
(Silver is also near the end of a long-term cycle that usually lasts about 18 years. This cycle started in Oct. 2008 with an $8.40 low in silver and most likely peaked early in April 2011 - near $50. It is not due to bottom until 2027 at the earliest - several years later than the expected bottom for gold's 23-year cycle. Nevertheless, if gold starts a major correction now, silver will follow and move significantly down with gold.)
Even if the Russia/Ukraine war and geopolitical instability push these metal prices to new highs, it is VERY late in gold's 23-year cycle, and the final top to this cycle is overdue and imminent - if it hasn't already happened.
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