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Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), Sept. 30, 2026

9/30/2026

GOLD and SILVER UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)

Gold is a bit tricky to call right now. It is getting late in the current medium-term cycle that started with the $3945 low on June 30. The high in this new cycle so far is the $4696 peak on Aug. 25. Prices have fallen steeply since then but have not yet broken below the June 30 low, so the trend is neither bullish nor bearish. We are now in a strong reversal zone, especially for precious metals (Sept. 23 - Oct. 5). The $4111 low on Monday may be a sub-cycle bottom, or possibly even an early full-cycle bottom, but prices could go even lower by next Monday. It may be worthwhile to buy any low that forms in this current reversal zone - especially if it goes below $3945 - as it could be the 4-year cycle low we have been waiting for (if it didn't happen already on June 30). We will watch the price carefully over the next several trading days to see how low it goes. For now, we are still on the sidelines of gold.

Silver's situation is very similar to gold's. A significant bottom seems to be forming in the center of a major reversal zone. Prices are finding support near the $60 line, which could be a good spot to buy, especially if the July 17 low near $55 turns out to be an 18-year cycle low. But even if the 18-year cycle low is still ahead and is going lower, a significant rally should follow any low in this current reversal zone. Stay tuned for a possible buying trade alert over the next few days. We are currently on the sidelines of silver.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), Sept. 22, 2026

9/22/2026

UPDATE ON SILVER (11:30 pm EDT)

I mentioned in recent posts that we're near the end of a long-term 18-year silver cycle that began in Oct. 2008. In my Aug. 9 blog, I wrote:

"There is a very long-term cycle in silver that usually lasts around 18 years. This cycle bottomed (and started a new one) in October 2008 (with a price close to $9). That means this year, 2026, is the 18th year of the current cycle. During the first 15 years of this cycle, silver's price was relatively stable, and it stayed close to $20. Over the last two years, however, the price went parabolic and touched $120 in January this year. That "blow-off" top was most likely the crest of the 18-year cycle. As with most blow-off tops, prices have fallen sharply from the peak, and the price has come back down to the $59 area. A low near $55 was touched on July 17 in the dead center of a strong general reversal zone.

Was that $55 low the bottom of the 18-year cycle? Maybe, but analysis of this cycle points to a lower low and a final bottom anytime over the next 20 months (the 18-year cycle may expand a bit), and that final bottom might go as low as $30. In the meantime, that July 17 low ($54.78) looks like the start of a new medium-term cycle. If the 18-year cycle isn't over, we don't expect this new medium-term cycle to exceed that January $120 top. In fact, it may peak early and turn bearish relatively quickly as prices continue down to the final 18-year cycle trough."

We still don't know if a new 18-year cycle has started. It is getting late in the current medium-term cycle, however, and if prices don't soon exceed the $71.10 top from Aug. 28, this cycle could turn bearish. Prices are now rising as we approach two significant, overlapping reversal zones (a general reversal Sept. 24 - Oct. 5, and one specifically for precious metals Sept. 25 - Oct. 5). We might get a peak in these time windows, or a trough (or both). It is too early to tell. As long as any peak stays below $71.10, the cycle's trend looks bearish, and it may be worth shorting near such a peak. For now, I remain on the sidelines of silver.

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), Sept. 17, 2026

9/17/2026

UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET and CRUDE OIL (11:30 pm EDT)

After September's FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the Fed announced a quarter point rate hike - the first since 2023.
Persistently high inflation made this hike inevitable, and investors were not surprised at the Fed's decision. In fact, the DOW's recent downslide was likely in anticipation of this hike. But the old adage "sell the rumor, buy the news" may also apply here, as the the sharp drops late Wednesday in all three stock market indces (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) rebounded today, indicating investors and traders have likely already factored in the hike. We shall see if this is the case tomorrow and next week.

It is significant that today was the last day of a reversal zone (Aug. 8 - 17), which suggests that yesterday's lows were a turning point for this market. From a cycles point of view, it appears that Sept. 10 may have been the first medium-term sub-cycle lows for both the DOW and S&P 500. If that's the case, the DOW may be turning bearish as yesterday's low (51,186) broke below the start of the cycle on July 23 (at 51,542). Yesterday's lows in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, however, stayed well above their July starting points - a bullish sign. We are therefore getting mixed signals here, which makes the current trend hard to call. We will watch the movement of this market carefully tomorrow and next week to better assess which trend will dominate. We are still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.

My last post on crude oil was over a month ago (Aug. 10). At that time I mentioned how the ongoing war with Iran had made crude prices very volatile. Unfortunately, things haven't changed much over the last five weeks, with that "wild card" factor driving a strong rally in crude.
I also wrote in that post about a 6-year cycle in crude oil that we are following:

"The long-term cycle we are going to focus on in crude oil is a 6-year cycle. A new 6-year cycle in crude began with a low around $55 in December 2025. Obviously, it is very early in this cycle, and cycles are almost always bullish in their early stage. This one has been no exception. If the cycle remains bullish, there is a potential price projection to $185 or even $200 (yikes!) before the cycle is over; however, this is a 6-YEAR cycle, so it may take some time to get there."

Well, with crude soaring to over $106 this week, that $185 doesn't seem so far away. This suddenly super bullish market has altered the interpretation of the current medium-term cycle in crude. Right now it appears that a new medium-term cycle started with the deep low of $67.12 on July 2 (Oct. contract chart). This cycle has clearly been very bullish, but it is now overdue for a sub-cycle correction. Tuesday's peak near $106 was likely a sub-cycle top (it was inside a reversal zone), so we could see a modest several day correction to at least the $95 level, possibly lower. That may fall into a new strong reversal zone coming up next Thursday (Sept. 24 - Oct. 5), and it may be a good place to buy for another strong rally (although a sudden resolution of the Iran crisis could put a damper on that). I am remaining on the sidelines of crude for now.

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), Sept. 10, 2026

9/10/2026

UPDATE ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET (11:30 pm EDT)

In my last blog post (Sept. 1), I wrote:

"The current medium-term cycles in all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) started with lows in the last week of July, so they're still young. They formed their first sub-cycle peaks relatively early and have since been falling to their first sub-cycle bottoms, which are now due. Those early peaks suggest the cycles may be bearish. The bottoms could happen this week, as we are still inside a strong reversal zone (Aug. 25 - Sept. 3). Another bearish sign is that the DOW and S&P 500 have made new all-time highs in their cycles while the NASDAQ still has not (intermarket bearish divergence)
....If this market is going to turn bearish now, these indices should start falling below their July lows. At the moment, that would be easiest for the DOW, as it is not far from its July 23 low (51,542). The alternative view (bullish) would require these indices to stay above their July lows..."

The sub-cycle bottoms MAY have happened last week in the DOW and S&P 500 with their isolated lows on Sept. 1, but they could also be happening this week as both indices are pushing even lower. The DOW is now approaching the start of its medium-term cycle (51,542 on July 23). If it drops below there, that would be a bearish sign. We are still inside a reversal zone for all markets until the end of next week (Sept. 8 - Sept. 17), so a turning point could come any day now.

If we label Sept. 1 as the first sub-cycle low in both the DOW and S&P 500, then their medium-term cycles have already turned bearish because after a brief two-day rally, they have fallen below those lows. The labeling is unclear at the moment, however, and we need to wait and see if these indices turn back up over the next five trading days.
I am remaining on the sidelines of this market for now.

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), Sept. 1, 2026

9/1/2026

UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET, SILVER, AND GOLD (10:30 pm EDT)

The broad stock market seems to be flashing several bearish signals. I wrote in my Aug. 4 post:

"As I've mentioned in previous blogs, there is a long-term 18-year cycle in equity markets that is almost over (this is the 17th year, but the cycle has a window of flexibility of 2-3 years on either side of the 18-year mark). This means we should be watching for the final high any time now, and that would be followed by a steep fall of 35%-67% to the final bottom (expected no later than 2030)."

The current medium-term cycles in all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) started with lows in the last week of July, so they're still young. They formed their first sub-cycle peaks relatively early and have since been falling to their first sub-cycle bottoms, which are now due. Those early peaks suggest the cycles may be bearish. The bottoms could happen this week, as we are still inside a strong reversal zone (Aug. 25 - Sept. 3). Another bearish sign is that the DOW and S&P 500 have made new all-time highs in their cycles while the NASDAQ still has not (intermarket bearish divergence).

If this market is going to turn bearish now, these indices should start falling below their July lows. At the moment, that would be easiest for the DOW, as it is not far from its July 23 low (51,542). The alternative view (bullish) would require these indices to stay above their July lows, and for the NASDAQ to soon make a new all-time high (above its all-time high of 27,190 from June). Right now, the bearish view seems more probable, but today's unstable political and geopolitical climate could change that view in a flash. I am remaining on the sidelines of this market for now, as the short-term trend is still ambiguous.

In my last post (Aug. 9) on silver, I wrote:

"...that July 17 low ($54.78) looks like the start of a new medium-term cycle. If the 18-year cycle isn't over, we don't expect this new medium-term cycle to exceed that January $120 top. In fact, it may peak early and turn bearish relatively quickly as prices continue down to the final 18-year cycle trough."

It looks like that new medium-term cycle formed its first sub-cycle peak last Friday near $70 in the dead center of a strong general reversal zone, as well as one for the precious metals (Aug. 25 - Sept. 3). The price is now falling sharply.

In my earlier blog, I mentioned the possibility that the July 17 low at $ 54.78 COULD be the end of an 18-year cycle in silver (and the start of a new one). I thought, however, it was more likely that the 18-year cycle bottom was still ahead and might go considerably lower, but now I'm not so sure. This new medium-term cycle is showing bullish energy. If the current sub-cycle correction does not break below $54.78 and we see new highs above $70 soon, then at least the short-term trend could turn bullish, increasing the chances that July 17 was indeed the start of a new 18-year cycle. For now, I am staying on the sidelines of silver until the 18-year cycle is more clearly resolved.

The situation with silver is similar to gold right now. We are waiting for a longer-term 4-year cycle bottom in gold to buy. The recent low of $3975 on June 30 MIGHT have been it already, but prices could also move lower over the next month or two to form the final 4-year cycle bottom.

Shorter-term, it looks like June 30 is at least the start of a new medium-term cycle. The first sub-cycle peak formed on Aug. 25 at $4696, and prices have been falling sharply from there. As with silver's new medium-term cycle, this cycle looks bullish. If the current correction does not break below $3975, we could see another rally to challenge that $4696 high. Because prices are falling into the current strong reversal zone (that ends Thursday), we could see a sub-cycle bottom and reversal by the end of this week. If that bottom stays above the June 30 low ($3975), it may be a good spot to buy. For now, I am still on the sidelines of gold.

Trading Blog Wednesday (late night), Sept. 30, 2026

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), Sept. 22, 2026

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), Sept. 17, 2026

Trading Blog Thursday (late night), Sept. 10, 2026

Trading Blog Tuesday (late night), Sept. 1, 2026

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