UPDATES on CRUDE OIL and PRECIOUS METALS (5:30 pm EDST)
The cycle labeling in gold and silver is uncertain at the moment (old or new cycles) as it is with the broad stock market (as well as crude oil). Our preferred labeling is that gold and/or silver are completing older cycles and prices are falling to their final medium-term cycle bottoms. For gold, a good target would be around $1800, and for silver, around $20. A good time for these lows would be this week or next - in our current reversal zone (Oct. 7 - 15).
There's a possibility, however, that gold and/or silver started new medium-term cycles with their lows on Sept. 24. If that's the case, prices could rally strongly now as the early part of a cycle is usually bullish. In that situation, we could see a high in this current reversal zone and would have to wait for a sub-cycle corrective dip for a possible buying opportunity. Let's stay on the sidelines of gold and silver for now.
In my last update on crude oil (9/22/20), I stated:
"Crude oil may have started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $36.13 (October contract chart) on Sept. 8. But there is still a chance prices could make a lower low (or double bottom)..."
Well, crude did fall and make a double bottom at $36.63 on Oct. 2, and prices have been rising from there. OK, it looks like a new medium-term cycle is starting here with this "double-bottom"; however, as I stated in the last crude update, if prices rally weakly and can't exceed $44, the cycle may turn bearish. In that situation, we might look to sell short at any sub-cycle top. Such a top could happen this week or next in our current reversal zone or even Oct. 14 - 22 as that will be another reversal zone specifically for crude. A lot will depend on how the broad stock market moves this week or next as crude often follows equity markets. We will stay on the sidelines of crude for now.
The cycle labeling in gold and silver is uncertain at the moment (old or new cycles) as it is with the broad stock market (as well as crude oil). Our preferred labeling is that gold and/or silver are completing older cycles and prices are falling to their final medium-term cycle bottoms. For gold, a good target would be around $1800, and for silver, around $20. A good time for these lows would be this week or next - in our current reversal zone (Oct. 7 - 15).
There's a possibility, however, that gold and/or silver started new medium-term cycles with their lows on Sept. 24. If that's the case, prices could rally strongly now as the early part of a cycle is usually bullish. In that situation, we could see a high in this current reversal zone and would have to wait for a sub-cycle corrective dip for a possible buying opportunity. Let's stay on the sidelines of gold and silver for now.
In my last update on crude oil (9/22/20), I stated:
"Crude oil may have started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $36.13 (October contract chart) on Sept. 8. But there is still a chance prices could make a lower low (or double bottom)..."
Well, crude did fall and make a double bottom at $36.63 on Oct. 2, and prices have been rising from there. OK, it looks like a new medium-term cycle is starting here with this "double-bottom"; however, as I stated in the last crude update, if prices rally weakly and can't exceed $44, the cycle may turn bearish. In that situation, we might look to sell short at any sub-cycle top. Such a top could happen this week or next in our current reversal zone or even Oct. 14 - 22 as that will be another reversal zone specifically for crude. A lot will depend on how the broad stock market moves this week or next as crude often follows equity markets. We will stay on the sidelines of crude for now.
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