MARKETS UPDATE and COMMENT ON FED MEETING (11:30 pm EDT)
The broad stock market was fairly flat this morning into the 2pm conclusion of the Fed's FOMC meeting. The subsequent release of the Fed's statement triggered a short (1 hour) rally in all three indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). To no one's surprise, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, but they also confirmed their previous forecast of two rate cuts for 2025. This was enough to assuage Wall Street fears and stimulate a bullish surge - at least into the 3:00 hour (the rally backed down a bit into the closing bell at 4:00). We will have to wait and see if today's surge can gain any legs over the next few days or if it will falter and reverse direction. We are still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.
The Fed's slightly dovish rhetoric did not seem to affect gold and silver prices. Both metals have made new highs this week, but both are also due for a corrective drop. I am staying on the sidelines of both until we see a significant drop in price.
Crude oil prices seem to be forming a strong baseline just above $66 (April contract chart). A deep isolated low ($65.22) on March 5 happened inside a strong general reversal zone as well as a reversal zone specifically for crude. This suggests a significant turning point for crude, so I am still anticipating an imminent rally. I am holding my long position in crude for now.
The broad stock market was fairly flat this morning into the 2pm conclusion of the Fed's FOMC meeting. The subsequent release of the Fed's statement triggered a short (1 hour) rally in all three indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). To no one's surprise, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, but they also confirmed their previous forecast of two rate cuts for 2025. This was enough to assuage Wall Street fears and stimulate a bullish surge - at least into the 3:00 hour (the rally backed down a bit into the closing bell at 4:00). We will have to wait and see if today's surge can gain any legs over the next few days or if it will falter and reverse direction. We are still on the sidelines of the broad stock market.
The Fed's slightly dovish rhetoric did not seem to affect gold and silver prices. Both metals have made new highs this week, but both are also due for a corrective drop. I am staying on the sidelines of both until we see a significant drop in price.
Crude oil prices seem to be forming a strong baseline just above $66 (April contract chart). A deep isolated low ($65.22) on March 5 happened inside a strong general reversal zone as well as a reversal zone specifically for crude. This suggests a significant turning point for crude, so I am still anticipating an imminent rally. I am holding my long position in crude for now.
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