CRUDE OIL UPDATE (11:30 pm EST)
The current longer-term cycles in crude oil are somewhat ambiguous, so I am going to focus on the medium-term cycle in this market. A new medium-term cycle in crude began on Dec. 16 (2025) at $54.84 (March contract chart). This cycle's trend looks bullish as prices quickly rallied up to $66.48 by the end of January. The rally took a breather from there, but price corrections have remained above a support line around $62. We just entered a reversal zone specifically for crude (Feb. 17 - 26). Yesterday's isolated low at $61.87 was inside the reversal, so that may be a significant turning point. This is supported by today's strong rally that is closing above the 15-day moving average.
A good target for the top of this cycle would be around $68, and there's a good chance this will be achieved as the cycle looks bullish. I am going to hold my long position in crude (which we entered on Jan. 23 around $61), with a stop loss on a close below $60 for now. We will be looking to unload (sell) near the $68 mark, especially inside any reversal zones. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran) are still driving this market.
The current longer-term cycles in crude oil are somewhat ambiguous, so I am going to focus on the medium-term cycle in this market. A new medium-term cycle in crude began on Dec. 16 (2025) at $54.84 (March contract chart). This cycle's trend looks bullish as prices quickly rallied up to $66.48 by the end of January. The rally took a breather from there, but price corrections have remained above a support line around $62. We just entered a reversal zone specifically for crude (Feb. 17 - 26). Yesterday's isolated low at $61.87 was inside the reversal, so that may be a significant turning point. This is supported by today's strong rally that is closing above the 15-day moving average.
A good target for the top of this cycle would be around $68, and there's a good chance this will be achieved as the cycle looks bullish. I am going to hold my long position in crude (which we entered on Jan. 23 around $61), with a stop loss on a close below $60 for now. We will be looking to unload (sell) near the $68 mark, especially inside any reversal zones. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran) are still driving this market.
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