UPDATE ON SILVER (11:30 pm EDT)
In my last post on silver (March 12), I wrote:
"Like gold, silver's medium-term cycle is also ambiguous right now. If it is an older cycle, then the final top was the $121 high on Jan. 30, and prices are now falling to a final bottom, due by the end of the month. That bottom could test the low of Feb. 6, around $64, but it might even fall below $40.
But a younger medium-term cycle could also have started with that Feb. 6 low. If that cycle is in play, prices could rally some more; but even with the younger cycle, prices will have to exceed that $121 high over the next several weeks for the trend to stay bullish. If they don't do that, the young cycle could roll over and turn bearish.
It's important to note that it is VERY late in silver's 18-year cycle. That means the 18-year top is overdue, and the $121 "blow-off" top on Jan. 30 could very well have been it. That's a good reason to favor a bearish outlook for now, with a minimal correction to $64, but also the possibility of an eventual plunge to $30."
Silver prices did continue to fall, and they made an isolated low on March 23, at the center of our general reversal zone. The low tested $61, which is below the Feb. 6 low at $64.14. If that was the end of an older cycle, we could see a strong rally now, but there is strong resistance around $90, and because it is very late in the longer-term 18-year cycle (with the recent blow-off to $120 being a likely candidate for the final top to that cycle), I don't think any rally will get very far before turning back down and going lower. On the other hand, if that low at $61 WAS the final bottom to the 18-year cycle (it's possible), then the current rally could become very strong and surge quickly up to test that $120 high. At the moment, I think this scenario is less likely than the bearish one.
I think it's best to stay on the sidelines of this market for now.
In my last post on silver (March 12), I wrote:
"Like gold, silver's medium-term cycle is also ambiguous right now. If it is an older cycle, then the final top was the $121 high on Jan. 30, and prices are now falling to a final bottom, due by the end of the month. That bottom could test the low of Feb. 6, around $64, but it might even fall below $40.
But a younger medium-term cycle could also have started with that Feb. 6 low. If that cycle is in play, prices could rally some more; but even with the younger cycle, prices will have to exceed that $121 high over the next several weeks for the trend to stay bullish. If they don't do that, the young cycle could roll over and turn bearish.
It's important to note that it is VERY late in silver's 18-year cycle. That means the 18-year top is overdue, and the $121 "blow-off" top on Jan. 30 could very well have been it. That's a good reason to favor a bearish outlook for now, with a minimal correction to $64, but also the possibility of an eventual plunge to $30."
Silver prices did continue to fall, and they made an isolated low on March 23, at the center of our general reversal zone. The low tested $61, which is below the Feb. 6 low at $64.14. If that was the end of an older cycle, we could see a strong rally now, but there is strong resistance around $90, and because it is very late in the longer-term 18-year cycle (with the recent blow-off to $120 being a likely candidate for the final top to that cycle), I don't think any rally will get very far before turning back down and going lower. On the other hand, if that low at $61 WAS the final bottom to the 18-year cycle (it's possible), then the current rally could become very strong and surge quickly up to test that $120 high. At the moment, I think this scenario is less likely than the bearish one.
I think it's best to stay on the sidelines of this market for now.
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