UPDATE ON GOLD
At this point in time, the longest long-term cycle in gold we are going to work with is the 8-year cycle. This cycle last bottomed in September 2022 around $1620. We are now four years into that cycle, and the price has come a long way, making a steep "blow-off" top at $5595 in January of this year. This 8-year cycle is dividing into two 4-year cycles, and that blow-off top was the crest of the first one. Prices have been falling steeply from that high, and we should now be looking for the final bottom of this first 4-year cycle (which will be the start of the second one) as a potential buying opportunity. It may have already happened with the low on June 30 (at $3945), but it would be better for the 4-year bottom to form within a reversal zone (with the price a bit lower) over the next several months.
In the meantime, it looks like that June 30 low was at least the start of a new medium-term cycle. If so, prices are now rallying to the first sub-cycle high, possibly into next week's reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Aug. 10 - 19). That could turn the rally back down, and maybe even turn the cycle bearish if prices fall below the June 30 low.
The bottom line here is that we want to buy near the 4-year cycle low. A sustained and substantial rally should follow, as the early stages of all cycles are bullish. The crest of the second 4-year cycle could challenge or exceed the crest of the first one (the $5595 "blow-off" top). Even if it doesn't, buying low in the bullish early stage of a 4-year-long cycle should generate a worthwhile profit. I am going to stay on the sidelines of gold for now as we watch for another low below $4000 that could be the final bottom in the current 4-year cycle.
I will update silver and crude oil over the next few days.
At this point in time, the longest long-term cycle in gold we are going to work with is the 8-year cycle. This cycle last bottomed in September 2022 around $1620. We are now four years into that cycle, and the price has come a long way, making a steep "blow-off" top at $5595 in January of this year. This 8-year cycle is dividing into two 4-year cycles, and that blow-off top was the crest of the first one. Prices have been falling steeply from that high, and we should now be looking for the final bottom of this first 4-year cycle (which will be the start of the second one) as a potential buying opportunity. It may have already happened with the low on June 30 (at $3945), but it would be better for the 4-year bottom to form within a reversal zone (with the price a bit lower) over the next several months.
In the meantime, it looks like that June 30 low was at least the start of a new medium-term cycle. If so, prices are now rallying to the first sub-cycle high, possibly into next week's reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (Aug. 10 - 19). That could turn the rally back down, and maybe even turn the cycle bearish if prices fall below the June 30 low.
The bottom line here is that we want to buy near the 4-year cycle low. A sustained and substantial rally should follow, as the early stages of all cycles are bullish. The crest of the second 4-year cycle could challenge or exceed the crest of the first one (the $5595 "blow-off" top). Even if it doesn't, buying low in the bullish early stage of a 4-year-long cycle should generate a worthwhile profit. I am going to stay on the sidelines of gold for now as we watch for another low below $4000 that could be the final bottom in the current 4-year cycle.
I will update silver and crude oil over the next few days.
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