We are approaching a holiday week-end (Good Friday and Easter Sunday) so it will be a short trading week.
The broad stock market tends to be optimistic into holiday week-ends and we have been seeing this bullish mood in a rally over the last three days. If the DOW continues to rise into early next week we may have a good setup to sell short. As I mentioned in my last blog, I am expecting a significant correction (short-term) in equity markets to begin sometime before the end of May. The cash chart for the NASDAQ recently turned 100% bearish (contract NASDAQ charts have remained mixed bullish and bearish as have all DOW and S&P 500 charts) so we are seeing some evidence suggestive of these markets turning back down. The NASDAQ has been more bearish than the DOW and S&P 500 over the last month or so and this may be telling us something. Still on the sidelines.
We missed our anticipated short-sell opportunity in gold and silver as both metals plunged dramatically yesterday (this is the problem with trading volatile markets). While prices could go lower, they are now close enough to some support levels ($1270- $1280 in gold and $19.00- $19.20 in silver) to make short selling less appealing at the moment. I will continue to watch for signs of the final long-term cycle bottom in precious metals that should be in by June.
I am expecting this bottom to be a major opportunity to go long in both gold and silver. On the sidelines of precious metals for now.
Crude oil prices remain buoyant and are likely being sustained by the increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine (and the West). Prices, however, seem reluctant to clear the March 3rd high of $104.48 as we approach the center of a timing window for a likely directional reversal in crude on April 21. As I noted in Monday's blog, failure to exceed that March high might indicate this market is turning bearish (momentum is currently 100% bullish). That said, there is still plenty of time for crude to make a new high before the end of next week when the current timing window for a reversal is over. If crude does make a significant new high, I will continue with a bullish trading strategy and will be looking to buy any subsequent correction. Still out of this market.