UPDATES ON THE BROAD STOCK MARKET, GOLD, and SILVER (10:30 pm EDT)
We are about halfway or more into our current medium-term cycles in both the DOW and S&P 500. These bullish cycles began with the April 7 lows at 36,612 in the DOW and 4,835 in the S&P 500. On June 12, I sold my long position in the DOW as I suspected a potentially deep sub-cycle correction was imminent. A six day correction did follow, but it turned out to be VERY minimal and bottomed yesterday at the end of our strong reversal zone (June 13 -23). The DOW then "gapped" up to a new cycle high today and formed a "bullish island reversal" pattern. Unless it moves back down to close the "gap", this is a very bullish signal. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also jumped to new cycle highs today confirming the bullish trend. It looks like I sold my long DOW position too early, and it may be a good idea to go long again on any price dips as another rally looks imminent that could take the DOW as high as 48,000 this year (i.e. significantly above its all-time high of 45,073 from Dec. 2024).
I should point out here that the broad stock market (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) is already 16 years into a longer-term 18 year cycle. That means that a top to this cycle is due (overdue) and could happen anytime now. Once that top is in, the DOW should take a major correction of 35% - 67%. (If this also corresponds to a long-term 90-year cycle, the correction could be even greater than 67% - i.e. a major "crash".)
Right now, however, this market is looking very bullish, and the DOW's chances of making a new all-time high seem quite good. We will watch this situation carefully. If the DOW can't make a new all-time high, it may be ready to roll over and make that 35% - 67% correction into the 18 year cycle low. If the DOW does make a new all-time high and the S&P 500 and/or the NASDAQ do not (bearish divergence), that might also suggest the 18-year cycle correction (and maybe even a longer 90-year cycle bottom) is imminent. Either way, we will be watching for those conditions to sell the market short - maybe before the year is over. We are currently out of this market.
The medium-term cycle picture for gold is still very ambiguous with several possibilities. However, there are several longer-term cycles that are now due to bottom anytime. A correction down to the $3000 level could be imminent, but we could also see a rally back up to $3600 before that happens. Tomorrow is the last day of our reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (June 16 - 25) and prices have been falling into a support line around $3300. Gold could be ready to turn back up again now. I am staying on the sidelines of gold for now until we see prices drop closer to $3000.
It is getting late in the medium-term cycle of silver that started with the low of $28.56 on April 7. Prices formed an isolated high last Wednesday ($37.29) near the center of our precious metals reversal zone, but they may also be forming an isolated low now still inside this reversal zone that ends tomorrow. Silver could snap back up and rally some more before falling to it's final medium-term cycle bottom. As with gold, I think I will wait for this final bottom before considering a long position in silver. For now, I'm staying on the sidelines of silver.
We are about halfway or more into our current medium-term cycles in both the DOW and S&P 500. These bullish cycles began with the April 7 lows at 36,612 in the DOW and 4,835 in the S&P 500. On June 12, I sold my long position in the DOW as I suspected a potentially deep sub-cycle correction was imminent. A six day correction did follow, but it turned out to be VERY minimal and bottomed yesterday at the end of our strong reversal zone (June 13 -23). The DOW then "gapped" up to a new cycle high today and formed a "bullish island reversal" pattern. Unless it moves back down to close the "gap", this is a very bullish signal. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ also jumped to new cycle highs today confirming the bullish trend. It looks like I sold my long DOW position too early, and it may be a good idea to go long again on any price dips as another rally looks imminent that could take the DOW as high as 48,000 this year (i.e. significantly above its all-time high of 45,073 from Dec. 2024).
I should point out here that the broad stock market (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) is already 16 years into a longer-term 18 year cycle. That means that a top to this cycle is due (overdue) and could happen anytime now. Once that top is in, the DOW should take a major correction of 35% - 67%. (If this also corresponds to a long-term 90-year cycle, the correction could be even greater than 67% - i.e. a major "crash".)
Right now, however, this market is looking very bullish, and the DOW's chances of making a new all-time high seem quite good. We will watch this situation carefully. If the DOW can't make a new all-time high, it may be ready to roll over and make that 35% - 67% correction into the 18 year cycle low. If the DOW does make a new all-time high and the S&P 500 and/or the NASDAQ do not (bearish divergence), that might also suggest the 18-year cycle correction (and maybe even a longer 90-year cycle bottom) is imminent. Either way, we will be watching for those conditions to sell the market short - maybe before the year is over. We are currently out of this market.
The medium-term cycle picture for gold is still very ambiguous with several possibilities. However, there are several longer-term cycles that are now due to bottom anytime. A correction down to the $3000 level could be imminent, but we could also see a rally back up to $3600 before that happens. Tomorrow is the last day of our reversal zone specifically for the precious metals (June 16 - 25) and prices have been falling into a support line around $3300. Gold could be ready to turn back up again now. I am staying on the sidelines of gold for now until we see prices drop closer to $3000.
It is getting late in the medium-term cycle of silver that started with the low of $28.56 on April 7. Prices formed an isolated high last Wednesday ($37.29) near the center of our precious metals reversal zone, but they may also be forming an isolated low now still inside this reversal zone that ends tomorrow. Silver could snap back up and rally some more before falling to it's final medium-term cycle bottom. As with gold, I think I will wait for this final bottom before considering a long position in silver. For now, I'm staying on the sidelines of silver.
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