GOLD and SILVER UPDATES (11:00 pm EST)
Last week, I revised my longer-term view of gold:
"I had been expecting gold to make a steep correction down to a longer-term 2.5-year cycle bottom, but it appears that cycle is being bypassed for a longer 4-year cycle. If this is true, gold is bullish, and any serious correction (to the 4-year cycle bottom) will be delayed. We should now be watching for the next medium-term cycle bottom in gold for a possible spot to buy. The medium-term cycle labeling is currently ambiguous. A new cycle may have started either on Aug. 20 or Oct. 28. If it began on Aug. 20, it is an old cycle and ready to correct down to a final bottom. An Oct. 28th start, however, would make the cycle young and prone to more rallying."
The medium-term cycle labeling is still uncertain, but there is a strong reversal zone specifically for gold and silver starting next week (Jan. 13 - 23, same as the general reversal zone for all markets). If prices start falling into that time window, we could see a significant cycle bottom then. Alternatively, more rallying into the same time frame could lead to a cycle top and a subsequent steep correction to a cycle bottom. Either way, we are on the sidelines and now waiting for a medium-term cycle bottom for a possible spot to go long.
After a small dip, silver prices have been rising steeply since New Year's Day. It looks like silver may be making a double-top to last week's surge up to $86.63. If this happens inside the upcoming reversal zone, it may be a good place to sell short. A double-top "blow-off" would likely be followedby a steep drop. We are on the sidelines of silver for now.
Last week, I revised my longer-term view of gold:
"I had been expecting gold to make a steep correction down to a longer-term 2.5-year cycle bottom, but it appears that cycle is being bypassed for a longer 4-year cycle. If this is true, gold is bullish, and any serious correction (to the 4-year cycle bottom) will be delayed. We should now be watching for the next medium-term cycle bottom in gold for a possible spot to buy. The medium-term cycle labeling is currently ambiguous. A new cycle may have started either on Aug. 20 or Oct. 28. If it began on Aug. 20, it is an old cycle and ready to correct down to a final bottom. An Oct. 28th start, however, would make the cycle young and prone to more rallying."
The medium-term cycle labeling is still uncertain, but there is a strong reversal zone specifically for gold and silver starting next week (Jan. 13 - 23, same as the general reversal zone for all markets). If prices start falling into that time window, we could see a significant cycle bottom then. Alternatively, more rallying into the same time frame could lead to a cycle top and a subsequent steep correction to a cycle bottom. Either way, we are on the sidelines and now waiting for a medium-term cycle bottom for a possible spot to go long.
After a small dip, silver prices have been rising steeply since New Year's Day. It looks like silver may be making a double-top to last week's surge up to $86.63. If this happens inside the upcoming reversal zone, it may be a good place to sell short. A double-top "blow-off" would likely be followedby a steep drop. We are on the sidelines of silver for now.
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