GOLD and SILVER UPDATE (11:00 pm EDST)
I have avoided discussing the precious metals over the last week or so because their chart patterns have not been that clear, and especially because the analysts that I follow have been differing widely in their opinions on what trend these metals are taking now. (This is unusual as most of them usually agree in their analyses most of the time, and that consistency is always a good sign that they're on the right track).
It does look like gold started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $1453 on March 16. It is therefore early in this new cycle. New cycles always start off bullish, and this one has rallied strongly from that $1453 bottom over the last three weeks. In order to remain bullish, however, gold has to exceed the high of the previous cycle which was $1701 (from March 9). It's getting there as yesterday's high got to $1666. But yesterday was the last day of our reversal zone, and prices are down a bit today suggesting that the market could turn back down here, If it does, we may fish for a good buying spot (as long as prices stay above that $1453 low). Any break and close above $1701 would verify that this new cycle is bullish and would also have us looking for a spot to buy. In that case we might see a strong rally to challenge or even exceed the all-time high of $1920 (Sept. 2011).
Silver may have started a new medium-term cycle on March 18 with its low at $11.70, but it might be still completing an older cycle whose bottom will soon go lower. We will have to wait and see how prices move from here to determine which interpretation is correct. As with gold, if silver takes a moderate correction and holds above that $11.70 low, we may look for a spot to buy.
Staying on the sidelines of both gold and silver for now.
I have avoided discussing the precious metals over the last week or so because their chart patterns have not been that clear, and especially because the analysts that I follow have been differing widely in their opinions on what trend these metals are taking now. (This is unusual as most of them usually agree in their analyses most of the time, and that consistency is always a good sign that they're on the right track).
It does look like gold started a new medium-term cycle with its low of $1453 on March 16. It is therefore early in this new cycle. New cycles always start off bullish, and this one has rallied strongly from that $1453 bottom over the last three weeks. In order to remain bullish, however, gold has to exceed the high of the previous cycle which was $1701 (from March 9). It's getting there as yesterday's high got to $1666. But yesterday was the last day of our reversal zone, and prices are down a bit today suggesting that the market could turn back down here, If it does, we may fish for a good buying spot (as long as prices stay above that $1453 low). Any break and close above $1701 would verify that this new cycle is bullish and would also have us looking for a spot to buy. In that case we might see a strong rally to challenge or even exceed the all-time high of $1920 (Sept. 2011).
Silver may have started a new medium-term cycle on March 18 with its low at $11.70, but it might be still completing an older cycle whose bottom will soon go lower. We will have to wait and see how prices move from here to determine which interpretation is correct. As with gold, if silver takes a moderate correction and holds above that $11.70 low, we may look for a spot to buy.
Staying on the sidelines of both gold and silver for now.
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