The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog        Tuesday,  July 7,  2020

7/7/2020

 
UPDATE on GOLD, SILVER, and the U.S. DOLLAR  (3:30 pm EDST)

Gold
is making a new weekly (and cycle) high today while silver is not. This gives us a bearish divergence signal and the possibility of both metals turning down now; however, there are other technical signals that are bullish - especially for silver. We are approaching a reversal zone specifically for the precious metals later this week (July 9-17) which is also overlapping with our strong general reversal zone for all markets (July 13-21). The precious metals need to start falling now if we are to see a significant cycle bottom in those reversal zones. If prices keep edging up into the end of this week and next, we will probably see a top instead and then a turn down moving to the cycle bottoms later in the month. Either way, our primary trading strategy now will be to buy the final cycle bottoms, hopefully near the target prices mentioned in yesterday's blog ($16.20 in gold and $15 - $17 in silver).

If the broad stock market turns down soon (as we are expecting), it could easily take the precious metals into a similar sharp correction. Traditionally, gold and silver are considered to be a hedge against a falling equity market, but the "crash" of  2008-2009 showed us that nervous investors are prone to sell "everything" during an equity market sell-off and will probably do so if we have another one. Although the correction we're expecting now in equities is probably not yet the "big one" (that may be a little later this year), it could be enough to push gold and silver into our target areas. The bottom line here is that both the precious metals and the broad stock market could either rise into next week's strong reversal zones for a cycle top or fall into a cycle bottom. We are primarily interested in buying both markets at their bottoms.

The U.S. Dollar Index which usually (but not always) moves opposite the precious metals has been falling, but it is close to a strong support zone between 96 - 97. If that support holds, a new rally could start which would most likely drive gold and silver prices lower. We will watch for this.






Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.