GOLD AND SILVER UPDATES (9:00 pm EDT)
(Please see my recent updates on gold and silver on the Home Page)
Gold's overall trend remains bearish. Several longer-term cycles are pointed down. A 4-year cycle bottom is now coming due, and we may even have seen the final peak of an 8-year cycle with the blow-off top of $5595 on Jan. 29.
The current medium-term cycle in gold may have started with the low of Feb. 2 ($4406) or the low of March 23 ($4100). Either way, the cycle looks bearish, as the rally from March 23 seems to be rounding over just beneath the 45-day moving average. If bearish, we expect the next sub-cycle bottom to at least test the $4000 mark, and probably go lower. We may be looking to buy at the final bottom of the 4-year cycle, but for now, I am staying on the sidelines of gold.
Silver's trend is also looking bearish. In my April 1 blog on silver, I wrote:
"It's important to note that it is VERY late in silver's 18-year cycle. That means the 18-year top is overdue, and the $121 "blow-off" top on Jan. 30 could very well have been it. That's a good reason to favor a bearish outlook for now, with a minimal correction to $64, but also the possibility of an eventual plunge to $30."
As with gold, the current medium-term cycle in silver could have started on March 23 or in early February (Feb. 6 low).
Both look bearish. I think the safest strategy now (silver can be quite volatile) is to wait for that 18-year cycle bottom to buy. Right now, a good general target for the bottom is the $47 - $50 range, but it may go lower. I am currently on the sidelines of silver.
(Please see my recent updates on gold and silver on the Home Page)
Gold's overall trend remains bearish. Several longer-term cycles are pointed down. A 4-year cycle bottom is now coming due, and we may even have seen the final peak of an 8-year cycle with the blow-off top of $5595 on Jan. 29.
The current medium-term cycle in gold may have started with the low of Feb. 2 ($4406) or the low of March 23 ($4100). Either way, the cycle looks bearish, as the rally from March 23 seems to be rounding over just beneath the 45-day moving average. If bearish, we expect the next sub-cycle bottom to at least test the $4000 mark, and probably go lower. We may be looking to buy at the final bottom of the 4-year cycle, but for now, I am staying on the sidelines of gold.
Silver's trend is also looking bearish. In my April 1 blog on silver, I wrote:
"It's important to note that it is VERY late in silver's 18-year cycle. That means the 18-year top is overdue, and the $121 "blow-off" top on Jan. 30 could very well have been it. That's a good reason to favor a bearish outlook for now, with a minimal correction to $64, but also the possibility of an eventual plunge to $30."
As with gold, the current medium-term cycle in silver could have started on March 23 or in early February (Feb. 6 low).
Both look bearish. I think the safest strategy now (silver can be quite volatile) is to wait for that 18-year cycle bottom to buy. Right now, a good general target for the bottom is the $47 - $50 range, but it may go lower. I am currently on the sidelines of silver.
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