We can now say with certainty that a longer-term 4-year cycle in crude oil started with the deep low of $63.57 in May 2023 (Nov. contract chart). That means we are already 1 and 1/2 years into a new 4-year cycle. Because prices have been moving down and getting very close to that $63.57 low (after rallying to $95 in Sept. 2023), this new 4-year cycle is in danger of turning bearish if it falls below $63.57. That would be a very bearish development as it would mean that prices would be moving down for at least two more years. I don't think this is likely to happen. It's more likely a "double-bottom" is forming now which would be a bullish signal for this market.
For our shorter term view, we have two possibilities for our current medium-term cycle. We could be nearing the end of a medium-term cycle that began on June 4's low of $71.55. This cycle might have ended with the recent Sept. 10 low at $64.61, but it's more likely the bottom is still forming and would be due anytime now by mid-November. Ideally, we would see a double-bottom to the Sept. 10 low around $64. There is a strong reversal zone specifically for crude coming up Oct. 8 - 17, so that might be a good place to look for a bottom. As long as prices hold above $63.57, we will probably be looking to buy that low. For now we remain on the sidelines of crude.