The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog        Thursday,  September 24,  2015

9/24/2015

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (3:15 pm EDT)

In Tuesday's blog I wrote: "
Even though we did not get an intermarket bearish divergence signal
between gold and silver (one making a new weekly high but not the other) as I would have liked, both metals appear to be turning down now, and a short-term sell signal appeared in both of their charts today."
It looks like my call was a little premature and we are now getting that bearish intermarket divergence signal today as gold surges to a new weekly high while silver remains below its high of last Friday. I entered a short position in gold (but not silver) on Tuesday with a stop loss in the $1140 area. I am going to remain short in gold and raise that stop loss to a close above $1160. Any traders who were stopped out at $1140 got out with a 1% loss and may want to consider re-shorting at today's high ($1155) with a stop loss at $1160 and/or silver making a new weekly high (i.e. above $15.43). If silver prices edge a bit higher and remain below $15.43 I will consider a short position in this metal as well (maybe tomorrow or early next week).  Holding my short position in gold but out of silver for now.

We are now moving out of an important reversal zone for the broad stock market as stock prices continue to fall. 
It looks like the DOW's high at 16,933 and the S&P 500's high at 2020, both on Sept.17, were significant tops, and this market is still on track for new lows into October. The DOW is now approaching fairly strong support around 16,000 so we could see a bounce here, but any rally will likely not get very far before turning down again. I am maintaining my short position in the broad stock market with the expectation of retesting or breaking below the lows of Aug. 24.

The U.S. Dollar Index has been falling with equity markets this week, and this may explain today's sudden surge in precious metal prices. Currency investors may be tired of waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and could be seeing gold and silver as a better "safe haven" investment as equities crumble. Nevertheless, a short-term bounce in the broad stock market right now (as suggested above) could temporarily lift the dollar and send gold and silver prices down. There is currently strong support for the dollar just above 95 so we will now watch for a potential short-term rally in the dollar from there.

We are now moving out of a significant reversal zone for crude oil and crude prices have failed to reach our target of $50 -$55. Crude's high of $49.30 on Aug. 31 was too early to be a top in the current cycle (although a top on that date is not impossible, just unlikely) so we may have to wait until the first two weeks of October (crude's next reversal zone) to see a top within our target area. If equity markets bounce now, they might carry crude prices higher to a new high above $50. We will have to wait and see how this plays out. Directional momentum in crude is currently mixed bullish and bearish so there is at least some potential here for more rallying.  Out of crude oil for now.



Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    June 2025
    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.