UPDATES on GOLD, SILVER, and CRUDE OIL (11:30 pm EST)
On Feb. 12, I wrote about gold:
"Gold's current medium-term cycle is either very old or very young. If a new cycle started with the low of $3887 on Oct. 28, the cycle is old and is in the process of a 2-5 week decline (from that Jan. 29 all-time high near $5600) to the final medium-term cycle bottom somewhere around $4200 - $4400. But if a new cycle began from the deep low on Feb.2 ($4406), then gold could be very bullish now and ready to rally above that Jan. 29 high."
The status of the medium-term cycle (old or new) is still unclear, although the chances of it being a new cycle are increasing as the price seems reluctant to turn down. Monday's isolated high at $5418 (a possible double-top to the Jan. 29 high) was inside a general reversal zone and could be a signifcant turning point; however, we are now entering another reversal zone specifically for precious metals (March 3 - 12). Another significant top or bottom could be imminent. If prices start to fall, we could see the final bottom of the older cycle next week. But a sudden rally could lead to a significant top in the new cycle that may have started on Feb. 2. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out. I am staying on the sidelines of gold for now.
On Feb. 16, I wrote about silver:
"Right now, a medium-term cycle bottom is due. It may have happened already with the Feb. 6 low of $64.14, but I think the bottom could go lower - at least to $54, and possibly even lower."
It's still not clear if that low on Feb. 6 was the medium-term cycle bottom. As I mentioned above for gold, we are now inside a reversal zone specifically for these metals. Ideally, I would like to see a deeper bottom (close to $54) inside this time frame (by the end of next week). I am still on the sidelines of silver.
Not surprisingly, the escalating war with Iran is driving crude oil prices sky high. Today, crude broke through a resistance line around $75 (April contract chart) and got to $82 before the trading day was over. Yes, we sold our long position in crude yesterday and missed out on a $6 one-day profit, but we are now in the center of a reversal zone for crude (March 3 - 12, same as for gold/silver), so a top should be imminent. Tensions/wars in the Middle East are a "wild card" factor in crude oil trading, and that makes this market very volatile right now. I am relying on cycle analysis to make trades, as that is more reliable than trying to guess the outcomes of geopolitical wars. It's also important to remember that volatility creates price surges in BOTH directions, so today's profit could be tomorrow's loss. We are now on the sidelines of crude.
On Feb. 12, I wrote about gold:
"Gold's current medium-term cycle is either very old or very young. If a new cycle started with the low of $3887 on Oct. 28, the cycle is old and is in the process of a 2-5 week decline (from that Jan. 29 all-time high near $5600) to the final medium-term cycle bottom somewhere around $4200 - $4400. But if a new cycle began from the deep low on Feb.2 ($4406), then gold could be very bullish now and ready to rally above that Jan. 29 high."
The status of the medium-term cycle (old or new) is still unclear, although the chances of it being a new cycle are increasing as the price seems reluctant to turn down. Monday's isolated high at $5418 (a possible double-top to the Jan. 29 high) was inside a general reversal zone and could be a signifcant turning point; however, we are now entering another reversal zone specifically for precious metals (March 3 - 12). Another significant top or bottom could be imminent. If prices start to fall, we could see the final bottom of the older cycle next week. But a sudden rally could lead to a significant top in the new cycle that may have started on Feb. 2. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out. I am staying on the sidelines of gold for now.
On Feb. 16, I wrote about silver:
"Right now, a medium-term cycle bottom is due. It may have happened already with the Feb. 6 low of $64.14, but I think the bottom could go lower - at least to $54, and possibly even lower."
It's still not clear if that low on Feb. 6 was the medium-term cycle bottom. As I mentioned above for gold, we are now inside a reversal zone specifically for these metals. Ideally, I would like to see a deeper bottom (close to $54) inside this time frame (by the end of next week). I am still on the sidelines of silver.
Not surprisingly, the escalating war with Iran is driving crude oil prices sky high. Today, crude broke through a resistance line around $75 (April contract chart) and got to $82 before the trading day was over. Yes, we sold our long position in crude yesterday and missed out on a $6 one-day profit, but we are now in the center of a reversal zone for crude (March 3 - 12, same as for gold/silver), so a top should be imminent. Tensions/wars in the Middle East are a "wild card" factor in crude oil trading, and that makes this market very volatile right now. I am relying on cycle analysis to make trades, as that is more reliable than trying to guess the outcomes of geopolitical wars. It's also important to remember that volatility creates price surges in BOTH directions, so today's profit could be tomorrow's loss. We are now on the sidelines of crude.
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