UPDATE ON CRUDE OIL (2:30 pm EST)
After testing strong support near $70 (April contract chart) last week, crude oil prices rallied strongly and broke above the 15-day and 45-day moving averages this week on Tuesday, but today they are now again below those averages and retesting that $70 area.
As with other markets right now, the medium-term cycle labeling of crude is ambiguous. We may be in an older cycle that started with Dec. 6's low at $66.41. The alternate view is that a new cycle started with last week's low near $70. In that scenario, we are forming a 'double-bottom" to that low today, which has bullish implications. In both scenarios, we are now in a time frame for a significant low and a significant rally to follow. A good target for such a rally would be a test of January's high around $78. A close below $70 and especially a close below $66 would change my bullish view of this market.
I am still holding my long position in crude (which we entered on Jan. 24). I am maintaining a stop loss for this trade on a close below $70.
After testing strong support near $70 (April contract chart) last week, crude oil prices rallied strongly and broke above the 15-day and 45-day moving averages this week on Tuesday, but today they are now again below those averages and retesting that $70 area.
As with other markets right now, the medium-term cycle labeling of crude is ambiguous. We may be in an older cycle that started with Dec. 6's low at $66.41. The alternate view is that a new cycle started with last week's low near $70. In that scenario, we are forming a 'double-bottom" to that low today, which has bullish implications. In both scenarios, we are now in a time frame for a significant low and a significant rally to follow. A good target for such a rally would be a test of January's high around $78. A close below $70 and especially a close below $66 would change my bullish view of this market.
I am still holding my long position in crude (which we entered on Jan. 24). I am maintaining a stop loss for this trade on a close below $70.
RSS Feed