MARKETS UPDATE (9:30 pm EDT)
In my April 21 post on the broad stock market I wrote:
"These indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) are now approaching those deep lows from April 7. Because we are in the center of another reversal zone (April 14 - 25), we might get a "double-bottom" formation this week which would support the idea of a new medium-term cycle and a new longer-term 3-year cycle starting together."
It looks like this may have happened with a double-bottom low around 38,000 for the DOW on April 21. All three indices have been rallying from that date with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ breaking above their 15-day and 45-day moving averages today. The DOW, however, may be hesitating beneath its 45-day moving average which could be a bearish sign. For now, I am remaining on the sidelines of this market.
We were expecting a sharp drop in gold, and we finally got it last Wednesday and again today with prices nearly touching $3200. That's a $300 drop from the April 22 high at $3495. We are not currently inside any reversal zones, and we were estimating a $400 - $600 fall in prices, so they could still fall lower. I am going to hold my current short position in gold for now.
Silver prices have also been falling and finding some support near $32, but they could also go lower before turning back up. I am staying on the sidelines of silver.
It was a good idea to bail out of our long crude position on April 22 as prices turned down the next day and have been falling since then. There may be some support near $56 (July contract chart), but as I pointed out in earlier blogs, it looks like this market's trend has turned bearish for now, and prices could go lower. We will stay on the sidelines of crude for now.
In my April 21 post on the broad stock market I wrote:
"These indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ) are now approaching those deep lows from April 7. Because we are in the center of another reversal zone (April 14 - 25), we might get a "double-bottom" formation this week which would support the idea of a new medium-term cycle and a new longer-term 3-year cycle starting together."
It looks like this may have happened with a double-bottom low around 38,000 for the DOW on April 21. All three indices have been rallying from that date with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ breaking above their 15-day and 45-day moving averages today. The DOW, however, may be hesitating beneath its 45-day moving average which could be a bearish sign. For now, I am remaining on the sidelines of this market.
We were expecting a sharp drop in gold, and we finally got it last Wednesday and again today with prices nearly touching $3200. That's a $300 drop from the April 22 high at $3495. We are not currently inside any reversal zones, and we were estimating a $400 - $600 fall in prices, so they could still fall lower. I am going to hold my current short position in gold for now.
Silver prices have also been falling and finding some support near $32, but they could also go lower before turning back up. I am staying on the sidelines of silver.
It was a good idea to bail out of our long crude position on April 22 as prices turned down the next day and have been falling since then. There may be some support near $56 (July contract chart), but as I pointed out in earlier blogs, it looks like this market's trend has turned bearish for now, and prices could go lower. We will stay on the sidelines of crude for now.
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