UPDATE ON GOLD (9:30 pm EST)
There are multiple possibilities right now for labeling gold's medium-term cycle as well as some of its longer-term cycles. Let's first consider gold's 8-year cycle, which began with a bottom at $1618 in Nov. 2022. We are just starting the 4th year of that cycle, which is near the mid-point. There is still plenty of time for prices to go higher before a top to the 8-year cycle is attained (especially if the trend is bullish); however, the parabolic rise and "blow-off" to the all-time high near $5600 on Jan. 29 could have been the final top to the 8-year cycle. If so, gold prices would be bearish and about to take a long-term correction down.
It seems more likely, however, that gold will exceed that $5600 high this year before starting its descent to an 8-year cycle low. Selling short at the top of the 8-year cycle would be a good trading strategy. There is also a 4-year cycle bottom that is due by the end of this year. Even if the top of the 8-year cycle is in (or is to be attained soon), a 4-year cycle bottom could be a good buying spot for at least a strong shorter-term rally (to a possible "double-top" or a lower secondary top to the 8-year cycle). I realize this is a bit confusing, but I will identify any patterns as they unfold over time.
Gold's current medium-term cycle is either very old or very young. If a new cycle started with the low of $3887 on Oct. 28, the cycle is old and is in the process of a 2-5 week decline (from that Jan. 29 all-time high near $5600) to the final medium-term cycle bottom somewhere around $4200 - $4400. But if a new cycle began from the deep low on Feb.2 ($4406), then gold could be very bullish now and ready to rally above that Jan. 29 high. With all these possibilities, I am going to remain on the sidelines of gold until we can identify a significant top or bottom to trade from. My bias is the older medium-term cycle, so I will be looking for a final bottom below $4406 any time over the next few weeks.
There are multiple possibilities right now for labeling gold's medium-term cycle as well as some of its longer-term cycles. Let's first consider gold's 8-year cycle, which began with a bottom at $1618 in Nov. 2022. We are just starting the 4th year of that cycle, which is near the mid-point. There is still plenty of time for prices to go higher before a top to the 8-year cycle is attained (especially if the trend is bullish); however, the parabolic rise and "blow-off" to the all-time high near $5600 on Jan. 29 could have been the final top to the 8-year cycle. If so, gold prices would be bearish and about to take a long-term correction down.
It seems more likely, however, that gold will exceed that $5600 high this year before starting its descent to an 8-year cycle low. Selling short at the top of the 8-year cycle would be a good trading strategy. There is also a 4-year cycle bottom that is due by the end of this year. Even if the top of the 8-year cycle is in (or is to be attained soon), a 4-year cycle bottom could be a good buying spot for at least a strong shorter-term rally (to a possible "double-top" or a lower secondary top to the 8-year cycle). I realize this is a bit confusing, but I will identify any patterns as they unfold over time.
Gold's current medium-term cycle is either very old or very young. If a new cycle started with the low of $3887 on Oct. 28, the cycle is old and is in the process of a 2-5 week decline (from that Jan. 29 all-time high near $5600) to the final medium-term cycle bottom somewhere around $4200 - $4400. But if a new cycle began from the deep low on Feb.2 ($4406), then gold could be very bullish now and ready to rally above that Jan. 29 high. With all these possibilities, I am going to remain on the sidelines of gold until we can identify a significant top or bottom to trade from. My bias is the older medium-term cycle, so I will be looking for a final bottom below $4406 any time over the next few weeks.
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