MARKETS UPDATE (11:00 pm EST)
This week the broad stock market has been rallying from last Friday's lows in all three of our market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). Those lows represented two week falls in the DOW and S&P 500, so both indices could be starting new medium-term cycles. The NASDAQ's fall, however, was only 4 days which weakens the argument for a new cycle. We have one day left in our current reversal zone. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed above their 45-day and 15-day moving averages today, although the DOW is still below both of those averages. If the DOW can get above its 15-day and 45-day moving average, we may have to assume new medium-term cycles have started, and we may be looking to go long. I am staying on the sidelines for now.
Speaking of moving averages, this week's rally in gold and silver has been weak and prices in both metals are staying below their 15-day and 45-day moving averages. Cycle analysis of these metals suggests that a medium-term and perhaps even a longer-term cycle is due about now. Last week's low in both metals may have been it, but the tepid rally from there (so far) has me concerned. Even if new cycles have started, they may be bearish. To negate this idea, we'll have to see gold and silver start closing above those averages. I am currently on the sidelines of both metals.
Crude oil HAS broken above its 15-day and 45-day moving average, but prices still remain in a congestion zone between $66 and $72. The trend here (bullish or bearish) is still not clear. I am remaining on the sidelines of crude oil.
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL READERS OF THE BLOG!
This week the broad stock market has been rallying from last Friday's lows in all three of our market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). Those lows represented two week falls in the DOW and S&P 500, so both indices could be starting new medium-term cycles. The NASDAQ's fall, however, was only 4 days which weakens the argument for a new cycle. We have one day left in our current reversal zone. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed above their 45-day and 15-day moving averages today, although the DOW is still below both of those averages. If the DOW can get above its 15-day and 45-day moving average, we may have to assume new medium-term cycles have started, and we may be looking to go long. I am staying on the sidelines for now.
Speaking of moving averages, this week's rally in gold and silver has been weak and prices in both metals are staying below their 15-day and 45-day moving averages. Cycle analysis of these metals suggests that a medium-term and perhaps even a longer-term cycle is due about now. Last week's low in both metals may have been it, but the tepid rally from there (so far) has me concerned. Even if new cycles have started, they may be bearish. To negate this idea, we'll have to see gold and silver start closing above those averages. I am currently on the sidelines of both metals.
Crude oil HAS broken above its 15-day and 45-day moving average, but prices still remain in a congestion zone between $66 and $72. The trend here (bullish or bearish) is still not clear. I am remaining on the sidelines of crude oil.
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL READERS OF THE BLOG!
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