CRUDE OIL CORRECTION (5:30 pm EST)
In yesterday's crude oil analysis I was using contract charts that had expired on Monday so I didn't see the price rise on Tuesday and Wednesday. I apologize for this oversight, but it doesn't alter our current sideline position. Crude may be taking its cues from the broad stock market right now, and like that market, any rally now may not get very far before turning back down. For both markets it all depends on when the current medium-term cycles reach their final bottom as both the broad stock market and crude oil cycles are due to bottom any time over the next several weeks. As I mentioned in yesterday's blog, the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ cycles may have already bottomed this month, but if not, they are going lower into the new year. Crude's low on Monday at $35.35 (February contract) could be the final low in its current cycle, but in terms of timing and other technical factors it would be much better for that bottom to happen in mid-January which is a strong reversal zone for this market. If crude makes a new bottom in mid-January we will look to buy, but if prices rally into that time frame we will look to sell short. Still on the sidelines of crude oil.
In yesterday's crude oil analysis I was using contract charts that had expired on Monday so I didn't see the price rise on Tuesday and Wednesday. I apologize for this oversight, but it doesn't alter our current sideline position. Crude may be taking its cues from the broad stock market right now, and like that market, any rally now may not get very far before turning back down. For both markets it all depends on when the current medium-term cycles reach their final bottom as both the broad stock market and crude oil cycles are due to bottom any time over the next several weeks. As I mentioned in yesterday's blog, the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ cycles may have already bottomed this month, but if not, they are going lower into the new year. Crude's low on Monday at $35.35 (February contract) could be the final low in its current cycle, but in terms of timing and other technical factors it would be much better for that bottom to happen in mid-January which is a strong reversal zone for this market. If crude makes a new bottom in mid-January we will look to buy, but if prices rally into that time frame we will look to sell short. Still on the sidelines of crude oil.
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