There are two possibilities now for the medium-term cycle in crude oil. If the cycle started with the July 20 low at $64.49 (Oct. contract chart), then crude's trend has turned bearish as prices have now moved well below that low. In that case, this week's rally would only be a short-term surge that won't get above $73.52. But if Monday's low at $61.74 was the start of a new medium-term cycle, then this market could be bullish and could easily challenge or even exceed that $73.52 high. Monday was the center of a reversal zone specifically for crude (Aug. 17 - 26), so this latter scenario is a strong possibility. Let's stay on the sidelines of crude until the trend here becomes more definitive.