CRUDE OIL TRADE ALERT (6:30 pm EDT)
It looks like it's time to bail out of my crude oil long position. I entered this way back on Jan.24 at $73 when this market was looking quite bullish. Earlier this month, however, crude prices got a one-two punch. Following President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement, OPEC announced higher than expected production increases. This combo plunged crude prices dramatically, and they haven't recovered very much since then.
Prices broke below an important low at $63.70 on April 4 (May contract chart), and last week crude nearly touched $55. This means crude's trend has turned bearish, and prices could (should) fall lower. Although there has been a sharp bounce from that $55 low, the rally is now encountering potential resistance at the 15-day moving average ($64.46 and falling) and another resistance line near $65. We are presently near the center of a general reversal zone (April 14 - 25), so it seems likely this rally will turn back down. It looks like a good time to bail out of any long positions. I realize this entails a significant loss, but I think it is best to get out now as there seems to be a high risk of prices falling considerably lower. I am putting a crude sell order in today for tomorrow's market open.
It looks like it's time to bail out of my crude oil long position. I entered this way back on Jan.24 at $73 when this market was looking quite bullish. Earlier this month, however, crude prices got a one-two punch. Following President Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement, OPEC announced higher than expected production increases. This combo plunged crude prices dramatically, and they haven't recovered very much since then.
Prices broke below an important low at $63.70 on April 4 (May contract chart), and last week crude nearly touched $55. This means crude's trend has turned bearish, and prices could (should) fall lower. Although there has been a sharp bounce from that $55 low, the rally is now encountering potential resistance at the 15-day moving average ($64.46 and falling) and another resistance line near $65. We are presently near the center of a general reversal zone (April 14 - 25), so it seems likely this rally will turn back down. It looks like a good time to bail out of any long positions. I realize this entails a significant loss, but I think it is best to get out now as there seems to be a high risk of prices falling considerably lower. I am putting a crude sell order in today for tomorrow's market open.
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