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Trading Blog          Sunday (night),  January 25,  2015

1/24/2015

 
BRIEF MARKETS UPDATE  (11:30 pm EST)

Last Thursday the European Central Bank announced its QE (quantitative easing) program and the DOW surged up nearly 260 points.  This was not surprising as the U.S. stock market's recent nervousness and volatility has been at least partly due to concerns about a collapsing European economy.  These fears were exacerbated when Switzerland made its surprise announcement on Jan. 15 to de-peg the Swiss franc from the euro, a development that many see as the Swiss government's lack of faith in eurozone economics.  With our own QE program now gone (unless QE4 is waiting in the wings) and a rise in short-term interest rates not too far in the future (probably mid-2015), it is easy to see why U.S. equities markets would cheer a new European QE program coming to the rescue to inject new life (at least for the short-term) into European economies on the brink of collapse.  This should act as a bullish influence on the U.S. stock market moving forward now.


We are still looking at the first week of February for a major turning point in the broad stock market.  A continuation of rallying into that time may present us with a good opportunity to short the market (especially if the DOW stays below 18,103).  On the sidelines for now.

Gold and silver are showing even more signs of an imminent short-term correction which could happen next week. 
If gold prices can drop to the $1250 area (and stay above $1220), we will probably have a good spot to buy as overall directional momentum in this market is very bullish now.  On the sidelines and waiting to buy. 

I am are still waiting for crude oil prices to either start rallying or move lower into the first week of February.  A new bottom in that time frame would be an ideal buy spot (as long as prices don't close below $40).  Out of this market for now.






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