BROAD STOCK MARKET UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)
A medium-term cycle AND a longer-term 1-year cycle bottom is now due in all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). All three indices fell steeply in the second half of last week and made new lows on Friday, which was just one day out of our strong reversal zone (March 17 - 26) and is acceptably inside the reversal (unless these indices fall further into next week).
The DOW got to 45,063, and the S&P 500 got to 6,356. If these are the bottoms to the medium-term and 1-year cycles, it is a bearish sign because these lows are well below the starting points of those medium-term cycles (including the NASDAQ). That suggests the trend has turned bearish, and the initial rally of the new cycles should NOT make new all-time highs before turning down again and falling to deeper levels. If this is true, it could mean a serious longer-term correction has started, and we should probably be looking to sell short the top of any initial rally in the new cycles.
I had been looking to buy the final low of the medium-term cycles for another strong rally - possibly to new all-time highs into the summer - but it looks like under the stress and uncertainty of Trump's war on Iran, this market may be faltering. Wall Street and equity markets do not like uncertainty. I am remaining on the sidelines of the broad stock market as we wait to see whether we get a reversal to the upside next week.
A medium-term cycle AND a longer-term 1-year cycle bottom is now due in all three of our broad stock market indices (DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ). All three indices fell steeply in the second half of last week and made new lows on Friday, which was just one day out of our strong reversal zone (March 17 - 26) and is acceptably inside the reversal (unless these indices fall further into next week).
The DOW got to 45,063, and the S&P 500 got to 6,356. If these are the bottoms to the medium-term and 1-year cycles, it is a bearish sign because these lows are well below the starting points of those medium-term cycles (including the NASDAQ). That suggests the trend has turned bearish, and the initial rally of the new cycles should NOT make new all-time highs before turning down again and falling to deeper levels. If this is true, it could mean a serious longer-term correction has started, and we should probably be looking to sell short the top of any initial rally in the new cycles.
I had been looking to buy the final low of the medium-term cycles for another strong rally - possibly to new all-time highs into the summer - but it looks like under the stress and uncertainty of Trump's war on Iran, this market may be faltering. Wall Street and equity markets do not like uncertainty. I am remaining on the sidelines of the broad stock market as we wait to see whether we get a reversal to the upside next week.
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