After studying the price chart of crude oil again over the weekend and observing today's price action, I am going to switch my strategy back to the one I suggested last Tuesday, which was to go long on condition of the price stabilizing above $102. Crude did find support last week just above $102 and prices rose to retest the recent high near $109 on Friday. The price is now backing down a bit with momentum remaining 100% bullish which is giving us an opportunity to go long. Besides the bullish momentum, there are several other cycle and technical factors suggesting we could see more rallying and perhaps even a surge up to the $115 - $120 area before a major correction sets in. Crude oil and the broad stock market are both showing some signs of being "runaway" or "blowoff" markets right now, and I am therefore going to be on the lookout for long position entry points with close stop losses in both. We are seeing this today with crude so I am going to go long in this market with a stop loss in the $103 -$104 area. Since it is presently evening in the U.S., I am placing this trade to buy when the market opens tomorrow morning. The price could drop a bit more tomorrow, and if so, any traders reading this on Tuesday would have an even better entry point (assuming the price doesn't close the day below $103).
As I mentioned above, the broad stock market continues to look strongly bullish. Cycles and timing factors are pointing to the end of August as the next "danger zone" for a major correction so we have plenty of time for a strong rally before then. If the DOW can find support in the 15,540 - 15,570 area this week, I will consider going long for a possible rally into late August. On the sidelines for now.
Gold and silver prices appear to be stuck at the moment and seemingly cannot decide if they want to break upside or downside. Medium-term momentum remains bullish and there is support for gold at $1300 (and even below towards $1284) and for silver down to $19, so I am betting on a move up here. Prices need to turn up very soon, though, as timing factors may start to favor a bearish (downward) move. I am going to hold my long positions in both metals for now, but I have a watchful eye on those support zones.