It is getting late in the current medium-term cycle in crude oil and also late in a possible longer-term (3 year) cycle in crude. The double top highs of $70.98 on Sept. 4 and $70.89 on Sept. 12 (Nov. contract chart) are in the predicted range of a top for both cycles, and they could easily be the final cycle tops (in terms of price and timing). If so, a correction will now follow that could take prices as low as $50 (that low would be due near the end of this year plus or minus a few months). This is a good argument to sell short right now.
The "wild card" factor in oil pricing at the moment is the upcoming sanctions on Iran the Trump administration is threatening to reinstate in November as the U.S. pulls out of the Iran "nuclear deal" negotiated by the previous Obama administration. Last week's price surge in crude was driven by fear of U.S. sanctions causing a plunge in Iran's oil output; however, Iran has been able to keep its output up during previous sanctions, and this time the sanctions are not being supported by Europe so it may be easier for Iran to undermine U.S. efforts. The November mid-term elections in the U.S. may overshadow this issue although it seems more likely that Democrats will try and highlight it as an example of the Trump administration being reckless and irresponsible. This could bring the issue to the forefront of the news as a major crisis and create a bullish effect on crude prices. Because crude's technical and cycle picture is pointing to a correction now, it is possible for the final cycle low to happen sometime in October. At that point, crude would be ready to start a new cycle, and any election issues focusing on the imminent U.S. sanctions could drive a strong rally from that low.
Based on the above analysis, it seems reasonable to enter a short position in crude now while the mid-term elections as well as the sanctions on Iran are still over a month away. We can set a close stop loss for this trade on any price surge that closes above $70 (and especially $71). Entering a short position in crude oil for tomorrow's market open.