GOLD UPDATE (11:30 pm EDT)
In my March 12 post on gold, I wrote:
"Gold's medium-term cycle, as well as some of its longer-term cycles, are still unclear at the moment. If we focus on the medium-term cycle, we have two possibilities. The deep low on Feb. 2 ($4406) could be the start of a new cycle. If so, we are expecting a significant sub-cycle corrective dip anytime now. Last week's isolated low (Tuesday) was a bit too early, so we could see another low in next week's general reversal zone that could be the springboard for more rallying..."
"The second possible labeling of the current medium-term cycle says the cycle began way back on Oct. 28 at $3887. In this labeling, the cycle is old and is falling to its final corrective bottom (from the Jan. 29 all-time high). That bottom would be due by the end of this month, probably somewhere near $4400."
Well, gold prices did take a sharp dive to $4100 on March 23. If Feb. 2 was the start of a new medium-term cycle, then that cycle's trend has turned bearish as $4100 is below the Feb. 2 low of $4406. On the other hand, if that March 23 low was the end of the older cycle, gold's trend could still be bullish, and a rally could be starting now that could test the all-time high of $5595 or even exceed it.
Right now, I'm favoring the bearish view. If the current rally can break through the current 15-day and 45-day moving averages ($4708 and $4952, respectively, both falling), I may change my mind. Resistance at those levels could turn prices back down and reinforce the bearish scenario. I am still on the sidelines of gold.
In my March 12 post on gold, I wrote:
"Gold's medium-term cycle, as well as some of its longer-term cycles, are still unclear at the moment. If we focus on the medium-term cycle, we have two possibilities. The deep low on Feb. 2 ($4406) could be the start of a new cycle. If so, we are expecting a significant sub-cycle corrective dip anytime now. Last week's isolated low (Tuesday) was a bit too early, so we could see another low in next week's general reversal zone that could be the springboard for more rallying..."
"The second possible labeling of the current medium-term cycle says the cycle began way back on Oct. 28 at $3887. In this labeling, the cycle is old and is falling to its final corrective bottom (from the Jan. 29 all-time high). That bottom would be due by the end of this month, probably somewhere near $4400."
Well, gold prices did take a sharp dive to $4100 on March 23. If Feb. 2 was the start of a new medium-term cycle, then that cycle's trend has turned bearish as $4100 is below the Feb. 2 low of $4406. On the other hand, if that March 23 low was the end of the older cycle, gold's trend could still be bullish, and a rally could be starting now that could test the all-time high of $5595 or even exceed it.
Right now, I'm favoring the bearish view. If the current rally can break through the current 15-day and 45-day moving averages ($4708 and $4952, respectively, both falling), I may change my mind. Resistance at those levels could turn prices back down and reinforce the bearish scenario. I am still on the sidelines of gold.
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