The Alternative Investor
  • Home
  • TRADING BLOG
  • Current Positions
  • Alternative Investor Strategy
  • ETFs
  • About Alternative Investor
  • Contact

Trading Blog          Monday,  January 6,  2014

1/6/2014

 
MARKETS  UPDATE  (2:15 pm EST)

Overall directional momentum in the broad stock market continues to be bullish, but we are nearing the end of some short-term cycles in the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ that would point to at least a short-term correction that could  bring the DOW into the 15,800 area or lower.  This could happen anytime now (and it may have already started from the 16,588 high on Dec. 31).  Because the market is falling into a reversal zone early this week, we could see a one or two day bounce that could bring these indices back up towards those Dec. 31 highs.  If those highs hold, such a bounce would present an ideal spot to sell the market short.  This is what I will be watching for this week.  Still on the sidelines here and waiting to sell short.

Crude oil is also falling steeply into a reversal zone early this week and may also bounce in a relief rally that could take prices back towards the $97 -$98 area.  Momentum in this market is currently 100% bearish so I am  looking to sell short any rallies.  On the sidelines at the moment. 

Unlike the broad stock market, gold and silver are rising into this week's reversal zone, so we may see a short-term pullback that would give us a good opportunity to cover our short positions in silver and start to go long in both metals.  As I mentioned in my last blog, there are signs now of a directional shift in the precious metals markets from bearish to bullish.  Does this mean that the June 27th low in gold at $1183 (spot price) and the $18.25 low (spot price) in silver were the final long-term cycle bottoms that we've been waiting for?  Maybe. That will take time to confirm.  An alternate scenario would be a short to medium-term rally in the metals now followed by another correction into a final bottom several months from now.  Such a rally could be substantial and worth trading, especially considering the cycle bottoms may already be in and any rally at this point could be the start of the new long-term bullish cycles in these metals.  Even though we have to rely on short-term trading before the passage of time officially confirms the long-term cycle bottoms, long-term traders should note that I don't expect the final bottom in gold to go below $1000.  Because these new cycles will likely take gold and silver to new all-time highs (and probably higher) over the next several years, one can easily see the long-term benefit of accumulating gold and silver at current prices (or lower).  Currently out of gold but still short in silver.






Comments are closed.

    RSS Feed

    Archives

    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

The Alternative Investor takes no advertising or incentives from any company, institution or investment that is discussed on the website.  Any trading and investing information presented is based on Alternative Investor's independent and unbiased research and analysis of current financial markets.

                                                                                                                                                            LEGAL and DISCLAIMER

All statements and trading/investment information on this website represent solely the personal opinion of The Alternative Investor based on information available at the time of writing and are intended for educational purposes only and are not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, commodities or currencies.  The Alternative Investor is not a licensed broker or financial advisor.  The Alternative Investor presents the trading and investing information on this site in good faith based on his own research into current financial markets but cannot and does not guarantee profit and does not guarantee against any financial losses that result from using this information.  All users of this website and the information presented within it assume full responsibility for their own personal trading/investing decisions and any losses that may result from them.

Trading and investing in any financial market may involve serious risk of loss.  For this reason all traders and investors should never place more money than they can afford to lose in any individual market.  The Alternative Investor monitors several markets and encourages a balanced distribution of funds among them (and others).  The Alternative Investor recommends consulting with a professional financial advisor before making any transactions with financial ramifications.  All trading, investing and financial transactions should always be made in accordance with the appropriate laws and legal regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

The Alternative Investor is an independent researcher and analyst and receives no compensation of any kind from any individuals, groups, companies or institutions discussed on this website.