MARKETS UPDATE (9:00 pm EST)
I entered a long position in the DOW last Monday (at 43,431), and after making a small dip on Tuesday, this index has soared up to 44,815 today - a new all-time high. This market continues to look bullish, and our next strong reversal zone starts next Tuesday. Let's see if this rally can continue into that time frame. The S&P 500 also made a new all-time high today, but the NASDAQ remained below it's all-time high from Nov. 11. This gives us a bearish divergence signal, but we are not inside any reversal zone. If the market does reverse down from here, we will consider selling our long DOW position if it goes too low. Otherwise, I am staying long in the broad stock market for now.
Both gold and silver rallied strongly last week, but today both metals dropped sharply and silver lost most of its gains. The labeling of gold's medium-term cycle is still unclear at the moment. Silver's medium-term cycle is more clearly defined, and the final bottom of this cycle is now due. I thought the low at $29.73 on Nov. 14 was it, but we may be getting a deeper low or perhaps a double-bottom to Nov. 14 this week. There is still strong support around $30, but if that breaks, I may consider selling my long position in silver. For now, I am staying long. We are still on the sidelines of gold.
Like the precious metals, crude oil rallied strongly last week and got above its 15-day and 45-day moving averages, but today prices plunged and are now back below those averages. That's a bearish sign. The current medium-term cycle in crude began with the low of $63.88 (Jan. contract chart) on Sept. 10, but we're still not sure if this cycle's trend is bullish or bearish, although it's starting to look bearish. It's also possible there's a longer-term 2-year cycle in crude that is due to bottom by early December. If that happens, we could see prices moving lower now - below $63.88 - into the upcoming strong reversal zone Dec. 3 - 12. I am staying on the sidelines of crude until these cycles are more clearly defined. If we do get a 2-year bottom in the upcoming reversal zone, it may be a good spot to buy.
I entered a long position in the DOW last Monday (at 43,431), and after making a small dip on Tuesday, this index has soared up to 44,815 today - a new all-time high. This market continues to look bullish, and our next strong reversal zone starts next Tuesday. Let's see if this rally can continue into that time frame. The S&P 500 also made a new all-time high today, but the NASDAQ remained below it's all-time high from Nov. 11. This gives us a bearish divergence signal, but we are not inside any reversal zone. If the market does reverse down from here, we will consider selling our long DOW position if it goes too low. Otherwise, I am staying long in the broad stock market for now.
Both gold and silver rallied strongly last week, but today both metals dropped sharply and silver lost most of its gains. The labeling of gold's medium-term cycle is still unclear at the moment. Silver's medium-term cycle is more clearly defined, and the final bottom of this cycle is now due. I thought the low at $29.73 on Nov. 14 was it, but we may be getting a deeper low or perhaps a double-bottom to Nov. 14 this week. There is still strong support around $30, but if that breaks, I may consider selling my long position in silver. For now, I am staying long. We are still on the sidelines of gold.
Like the precious metals, crude oil rallied strongly last week and got above its 15-day and 45-day moving averages, but today prices plunged and are now back below those averages. That's a bearish sign. The current medium-term cycle in crude began with the low of $63.88 (Jan. contract chart) on Sept. 10, but we're still not sure if this cycle's trend is bullish or bearish, although it's starting to look bearish. It's also possible there's a longer-term 2-year cycle in crude that is due to bottom by early December. If that happens, we could see prices moving lower now - below $63.88 - into the upcoming strong reversal zone Dec. 3 - 12. I am staying on the sidelines of crude until these cycles are more clearly defined. If we do get a 2-year bottom in the upcoming reversal zone, it may be a good spot to buy.
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