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Trading Blog          Monday,  August 12,  2013

8/12/2013

 
SILVER TRADE ALERT and BRIEF MARKETS UPDATE   (1:45 pm EST)

Some short-term and medium-term technical signals in the price charts for gold and silver are turning bullish again and I am going to buy back the long position in silver I unloaded last Wednesday.  I had been a little concerned about silver's break below $20, and I was especially worried over the recent appearance of bearish signals in some contract price charts for silver as well as strong bearish momentum in the charts of gold and silver mining companies.  These bearish signals are now being negated and the price of silver has clearly broken back above $20 (which now becomes support and can serve as a stop loss point again).  Gold is closing the day above $1325 which is another bullish sign.  Note that, unlike silver, we have been maintaining our long position in gold and will continue to hold it.  I would like to point out here that although I am putting some funds into gold and silver now, I am not heavily invested (yet) because it is still not certain that the final bottoms in the long-term cycles for these metals are in (although they could be).  What we want to see now is for gold and silver to break through more resistance levels.  At the moment that would be around $1350 in gold and $22 in silver.  There is a potential for a good rally here so we are now long in both gold and silver.

The broad stock market looks like it may be weakening.  The DOW is breaking below 15,400 and a medium-term bearish signal appeared in the chart for this index last Friday, although the charts for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are still strongly bullish.  If the S&P 500 and NASDAQ start to turn bearish we may see that significant correction we were anticipating for the end of August starting early.  If this turns out to be the case, we will be looking to sell short.  On the sidelines for now.

The chart pattern for crude oil is similar to the DOW right now with medium-term bearish momentum.  There is a good chance a significant correction is starting here, but the price has to start turning down soon and close below $102 to confirm this. On the sidelines of this market.

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