We are now at the center of a strong reversal zone especially relevant to the precious metals, and gold and silver prices have been falling into it. Gold started a new medium-term cycle on May 31 so this likely represents a subcycle correction for the yellow metal, but silver is still completing an older cycle and is due to take a sharper correction over the next several weeks to the final cycle bottom. Gold is close to our target of $1,300, but silver is a good distance away from our $18 target (it is finding support at $20). Based on all of this I am going to enter a long position in gold with a close stop loss at $1,300 and remain out of silver for now. It is possible for both metals to turn up now and rally strongly, but silver's rally could be followed quickly by a sharp correction to its final cycle bottom so it is probably best to wait for that bottom to buy (possibly around $18). Entering a long position in gold today but remaining out of silver
The broad stock market has rallied strongly all week and is entitled to a small pullback which may be starting now.
This market still looks strongly bullish so I am going to remain long and try to ride out any corrections which should be minor. We can still use 17,400 in the DOW and 2,040 in the S&P 500 as stop loss points, but to preserve some of our profits I will probably raise these levels this week-end. Holding my long position in the broad stock market.
Crude oil prices seemed reluctant to fall below $44.50 this week and were probably being buoyed by the bullish broad stock market (or is it the other way around?). If the equity rally does take a breather now, we could see crude prices also move lower and deeper into our target range ($40 - $45) next week. If not, that $44.50 level may be the bottom of crude's medium-term cycle and the start of a new one. On the sidelines of crude for now.